Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss September 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Jean Silva
“Lord”
17-3-0
29y·5' 7"·69" reach·Orthodox
0:19
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.32
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
71%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 274 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 65%Body 27%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 12%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head44%
Body81%
Legs91%
Distance50%
Clinch77%
Ground80%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
7Wins4 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
1Losses1 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
3%
Wilson
2%
Jourdain
0%
Dober
2%
Baghdasaryan
4%
Mitchell
1%
Lopes
4%
Allen
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.55100%7
R26.15173%5
R34.92—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.82
Strikes absorbed / min4.5
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min1.2
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land60%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed78%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.32
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts8.6m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
49.9%
Landed at range
459 thrown over 7 bouts
40.9%
Expected
against these opponents
+8.9pp
Gap
above expected
87.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WArnold AllenJan 2026U-DEC0:32 ctrl74 str4 td
Significant strikes
74 of 136 · 54%
Total strikes
78 of 141 · 55%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 30%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
LDiego LopesSep 2025KO R20:03 ctrl43 str0 td
Significant strikes
43 of 91 · 47%
Total strikes
43 of 91 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:48
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 60%Body 23%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WBryce MitchellApr 2025SUB R20:19 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 63 · 43%
Total strikes
29 of 65 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:19
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:52
Guillotine Choke In ClinchTarget
Head 41%Body 48%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 11%Ground 4%
WMelsik BaghdasaryanFeb 2025KO R10:06 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 27 · 67%
Total strikes
18 of 27 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:15
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 61%Body 39%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 0%Ground 39%
WDrew DoberJul 2024DOC R30:00 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 109 · 49%
Total strikes
53 of 109 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R3 1:28
Cut to Dober's eyeTarget
Head 70%Body 28%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WCharles JourdainJun 2024KO R20:09 ctrl34 str0 td
Significant strikes
34 of 55 · 62%
Total strikes
35 of 56 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:22
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 76%Body 21%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 41%Clinch 47%Ground 12%
WWestin WilsonJan 2024KO R10:08 ctrl25 str1 td
Significant strikes
25 of 36 · 69%
Total strikes
25 of 36 · 69%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:12
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 96%Body 4%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%