Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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John Castaneda
21-8-1
34y·5' 6"·71" reach·Switch
2:27
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.12
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
40%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in October 2022, 96 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 9 recorded bouts, 599 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 57%Body 16%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 6%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body65%
Legs80%
Distance50%
Clinch69%
Ground78%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
1%
Wood
1%
Wineland
15%
Johns
22%
Santos
28%
Gafurov
15%
Kang
15%
Marcos
32%
Gutierrez
8%
Vologdin
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R15.06100%9
R24.8997%8
R35.70113%7
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.95
Strikes absorbed / min5.07
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min1.49
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land37%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed75%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together10.02
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 9 bouts12.9m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
45.7%
Landed at range
582 thrown over 6 bouts
35.3%
Expected
against these opponents
+10.4pp
Gap
above expected
74.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
DMark VologdinApr 2026M-DEC1:15 ctrl135 str0 td
Significant strikes
135 of 253 · 53%
Total strikes
160 of 279 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 14%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 7%Ground 1%
LChris GutierrezApr 2025S-DEC4:50 ctrl41 str1 td
Significant strikes
41 of 77 · 53%
Total strikes
76 of 118 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 20%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
LDaniel MarcosJun 2024U-DEC2:12 ctrl60 str1 td
Significant strikes
60 of 123 · 49%
Total strikes
68 of 134 · 51%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
2:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 15%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WKyung Ho KangNov 2023U-DEC2:18 ctrl111 str3 td
Significant strikes
111 of 179 · 62%
Total strikes
119 of 187 · 64%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
2:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 27%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WMuin GafurovJun 2023U-DEC4:16 ctrl40 str3 td
Significant strikes
40 of 88 · 45%
Total strikes
70 of 121 · 58%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
4:16
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 75%Body 10%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 3%Ground 5%
LDaniel SantosOct 2022KO R22:04 ctrl57 str3 td
Significant strikes
57 of 106 · 54%
Total strikes
67 of 118 · 57%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
2:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:28
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 79%Body 14%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 14%Ground 14%
WMiles JohnsFeb 2022SUB R31:45 ctrl58 str0 td
Significant strikes
58 of 147 · 39%
Total strikes
68 of 159 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:45
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 1:38
Arm Triangle From Half GuardTarget
Head 69%Body 10%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 12%Ground 7%
WEddie WinelandFeb 2021KO R10:04 ctrl42 str0 td
Significant strikes
42 of 57 · 74%
Total strikes
44 of 59 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:44
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 55%Body 10%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 5%Ground 14%
LNathaniel WoodJul 2020U-DEC0:11 ctrl55 str0 td
Significant strikes
55 of 130 · 42%
Total strikes
66 of 141 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:11
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 11%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%