Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss March 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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AJ Dobson
7-3-0 (1 NC)
34y·6' 1"·76" reach·Orthodox
2:08
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.02
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 192 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 55%Body 15%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 9%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head32%
Body73%
Legs89%
Distance43%
Clinch62%
Ground54%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins1 SUB · 1 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
3%
Malkoun
5%
Petrosyan
30%
Nchukwi
27%
Shahbazyan
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R15.36100%4
R23.4765%3
R32.3344%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.29
Strikes absorbed / min5.31
Striking accuracyof everything thrown46%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed46%
Takedowns / 15 min1.67
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land75%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed65%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.6
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts12.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.9%
Landed at range
389 thrown over 4 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LEdmen ShahbazyanMar 2024KO R11:15 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 46 · 33%
Total strikes
20 of 54 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:33
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 47%Body 13%Legs 40%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
WTafon NchukwiAug 2023U-DEC4:33 ctrl67 str2 td
Significant strikes
67 of 134 · 50%
Total strikes
98 of 176 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
4:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 28%Body 18%Legs 54%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 3%Ground 6%
LArmen PetrosyanOct 2022U-DEC0:49 ctrl58 str3 td
Significant strikes
58 of 161 · 36%
Total strikes
64 of 168 · 38%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
0:49
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 16%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
LJacob MalkounFeb 2022U-DEC0:27 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 90 · 58%
Total strikes
68 of 110 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 12%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 10%Ground 6%