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AJ Fletcher

10-3-0
29y·5' 10"·67" reach·Switch
3:19
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.25
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in February 2023, 120 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 153 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 70%Body 11%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 8%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body63%
Legs83%
Distance48%
Clinch60%
Ground56%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

2Wins1 KO · 1 SUB
3Losses1 SUB · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

38%
Semelsberger
4%
Loosa
51%
Gorimbo
6%
Battle

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.50100%4
R25.37215%4
R31.602

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.36
Strikes absorbed / min4.61
Striking accuracyof everything thrown49%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed46%
Takedowns / 15 min1.54
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land35%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed33%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.9
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.97
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts11.5m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

47.6%
Landed at range
275 thrown over 4 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LBryan BattleSep 2023SUB R20:33 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 51 · 49%
Total strikes
29 of 57 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:32
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 24%Body 24%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WThemba GorimboFeb 2023SUB R23:21 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 17 · 41%
Total strikes
23 of 35 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
3:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R2 1:37
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 86%Body 0%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 14%Clinch 14%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
LAnge LoosaAug 2022U-DEC0:36 ctrl87 str0 td
Significant strikes
87 of 181 · 48%
Total strikes
103 of 201 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 85%Body 10%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 7%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatthew SemelsbergerMar 2022U-DEC5:42 ctrl34 str4 td
Significant strikes
34 of 64 · 53%
Total strikes
87 of 124 · 70%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
5:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
2
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 6%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.