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Alan Patrick

15-4-0 (1 NC)
43y·5' 11"·74" reach·Southpaw
5:31
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.13
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
20%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss June 2015. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again May 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 209 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 61%Body 25%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 11%Ground 22%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body56%
Legs88%
Distance34%
Clinch67%
Ground71%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

5Wins1 KO · 4 DEC
4Losses3 KO · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

23%
Whiteley
11%
Makdessi
6%
Taisumov
83%
Brown
81%
Ray
83%
Hadzovic
2%
Holtzman
11%
Green
0%
Jones
2%
Johnson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.11100%10
R21.6478%9
R31.5774%6

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min1.82
Strikes absorbed / min2.95
Striking accuracyof everything thrown40%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed43%
Takedowns / 15 min3.01
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed43%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together4.77
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts11.5m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

33.8%
Landed at range
414 thrown over 10 bouts
33.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.7pp
Gap
above expected
81.1%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LMichael JohnsonMay 2022KO R20:12 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 47 · 47%
Total strikes
30 of 56 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:22
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 32%Body 41%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
NCMason JonesJun 2021NC R20:02 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 32 · 31%
Total strikes
14 of 39 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R2 2:14
Eye Poke by Jones
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 30%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKing GreenSep 2020U-DEC1:43 ctrl19 str1 td
Significant strikes
19 of 69 · 28%
Total strikes
38 of 89 · 43%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
1:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 37%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LScott HoltzmanOct 2018KO R30:13 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 62 · 40%
Total strikes
27 of 65 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:42
Elbows to Head From Mount
Target
Head 64%Body 32%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDamir HadzovicFeb 2018U-DEC12:29 ctrl28 str9 td
Significant strikes
28 of 45 · 62%
Total strikes
91 of 129 · 71%
Takedowns
9 of 15 · 60%
Control
12:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 18%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 11%Ground 61%
This fight on UFCStats
WStevie RaySep 2016U-DEC12:12 ctrl7 str5 td
Significant strikes
7 of 12 · 58%
Total strikes
60 of 75 · 80%
Takedowns
5 of 8 · 63%
Control
12:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 0%Ground 57%
This fight on UFCStats
WDamien BrownMar 2016U-DEC12:24 ctrl25 str5 td
Significant strikes
25 of 39 · 64%
Total strikes
117 of 147 · 80%
Takedowns
5 of 7 · 71%
Control
12:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 92%Body 4%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 28%Clinch 0%Ground 72%
This fight on UFCStats
LMairbek TaisumovJun 2015KO R20:23 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 38 · 45%
Total strikes
17 of 38 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 7 · 0%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:30
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 29%Body 47%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 12%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJohn MakdessiFeb 2014U-DEC1:40 ctrl40 str2 td
Significant strikes
40 of 134 · 30%
Total strikes
42 of 136 · 31%
Takedowns
2 of 11 · 18%
Control
1:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 25%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WGarett WhiteleyOct 2013KO R10:53 ctrl16 str1 td
Significant strikes
16 of 35 · 46%
Total strikes
19 of 42 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:53
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:54
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 81%Body 0%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 19%Ground 31%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.