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Alex Oliveira

22-12-1 (2 NC)
38y·5' 11"·76" reach·Orthodox
4:57
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.44
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
64%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2017. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Mar 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2017, 80 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Mar 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 22 recorded bouts, 629 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 57%Body 25%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 23%Ground 18%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body72%
Legs90%
Distance44%
Clinch68%
Ground69%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

11Wins4 KO · 3 SUB · 4 DEC
10Losses2 KO · 5 SUB · 3 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

23%
Burns
47%
Noons
69%
Merritt
28%
Hallmann
33%
Cerrone
76%
Moontasri
61%
Brooks
37%
Means
63%
Means
0%
LaFlare
26%
Medeiros
45%
Condit
13%
Jr.
33%
Nelson
9%
Perry
26%
Dalby
23%
Griffin
3%
Sobotta
44%
Rakhmonov
0%
Brown
22%
Price
7%
Holland

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.86100%22
R22.92102%16
R33.36117%11

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min2.99
Strikes absorbed / min2.55
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed46%
Takedowns / 15 min2.35
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land38%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed63%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.54
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 22 bouts9.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

43.6%
Landed at range
857 thrown over 22 bouts
40.0%
Expected
against these opponents
+3.6pp
Gap
above expected
84.6%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LKevin HollandMar 2022KO R20:22 ctrl21 str2 td
Significant strikes
21 of 44 · 48%
Total strikes
21 of 44 · 48%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:38
Elbows to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 29%Body 33%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LNiko PriceOct 2021U-DEC3:14 ctrl65 str1 td
Significant strikes
65 of 112 · 58%
Total strikes
83 of 131 · 63%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 26%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 3%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LRandy BrownApr 2021SUB R10:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 12 · 58%
Total strikes
9 of 14 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:50
Rear Naked Choke One-arm RNC
Target
Head 14%Body 14%Legs 71%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LShavkat RakhmonovOct 2020SUB R12:04 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 18 · 50%
Total strikes
16 of 26 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:40
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 33%Body 33%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 44%Clinch 56%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WPeter SobottaJul 2020U-DEC0:26 ctrl45 str0 td
Significant strikes
45 of 93 · 48%
Total strikes
48 of 96 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 36%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 16%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WMax GriffinMar 2020S-DEC3:31 ctrl40 str1 td
Significant strikes
40 of 77 · 52%
Total strikes
61 of 98 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
3:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 28%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 8%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LNicolas DalbySep 2019U-DEC3:56 ctrl18 str3 td
Significant strikes
18 of 47 · 38%
Total strikes
31 of 65 · 48%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
3:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 0%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 6%Ground 22%
This fight on UFCStats
LMike PerryApr 2019U-DEC1:18 ctrl48 str0 td
Significant strikes
48 of 137 · 35%
Total strikes
50 of 139 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 15%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LGunnar NelsonDec 2018SUB R23:06 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 49 · 73%
Total strikes
52 of 69 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
3:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R2 4:17
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 75%Body 17%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 8%Clinch 25%Ground 67%
This fight on UFCStats
WCarlo Pedersoli Jr.Sep 2018KO R10:05 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 10 · 70%
Total strikes
10 of 13 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:39
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 0%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
WCarlos ConditApr 2018SUB R23:44 ctrl9 str3 td
Significant strikes
9 of 23 · 39%
Total strikes
22 of 37 · 59%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
3:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:17
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Ground
Target
Head 89%Body 11%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 11%Clinch 0%Ground 89%
This fight on UFCStats
LYancy MedeirosDec 2017KO R33:05 ctrl93 str2 td
Significant strikes
93 of 161 · 58%
Total strikes
96 of 164 · 59%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
3:05
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:02
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 66%Body 31%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 25%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
WRyan LaFlareJul 2017KO R20:01 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 21 · 38%
Total strikes
8 of 21 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:50
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 50%Body 13%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 25%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WTim MeansMar 2017SUB R24:49 ctrl12 str6 td
Significant strikes
12 of 24 · 50%
Total strikes
18 of 31 · 58%
Takedowns
6 of 11 · 55%
Control
4:49
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:38
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 50%Body 8%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 50%Ground 33%
This fight on UFCStats
NCTim MeansDec 2016NC R11:18 ctrl6 str1 td
Significant strikes
6 of 10 · 60%
Total strikes
9 of 13 · 69%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R1 3:33
Knees by Means
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WWill BrooksOct 2016KO R38:12 ctrl48 str4 td
Significant strikes
48 of 59 · 81%
Total strikes
80 of 102 · 78%
Takedowns
4 of 10 · 40%
Control
8:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:30
Punches to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 44%Body 23%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 13%Clinch 58%Ground 29%
This fight on UFCStats
WJames MoontasriJul 2016U-DEC11:21 ctrl58 str2 td
Significant strikes
58 of 78 · 74%
Total strikes
156 of 196 · 80%
Takedowns
2 of 8 · 25%
Control
11:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 48%Body 48%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 9%Clinch 26%Ground 66%
This fight on UFCStats
LDonald CerroneFeb 2016SUB R10:51 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 24 · 58%
Total strikes
17 of 27 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:51
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:33
Triangle Choke From Mount
Target
Head 29%Body 43%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 21%Clinch 79%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WPiotr HallmannNov 2015KO R33:00 ctrl42 str0 td
Significant strikes
42 of 109 · 39%
Total strikes
54 of 121 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
3:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:51
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 76%Body 17%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 38%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WJoe MerrittJun 2015U-DEC10:24 ctrl11 str5 td
Significant strikes
11 of 33 · 33%
Total strikes
33 of 60 · 55%
Takedowns
5 of 16 · 31%
Control
10:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 0%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 45%Clinch 36%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats
WKJ NoonsMay 2015SUB R11:20 ctrl3 str3 td
Significant strikes
3 of 13 · 23%
Total strikes
4 of 14 · 29%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
1:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:51
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 33%Body 0%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LGilbert BurnsMar 2015SUB R33:20 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 76 · 38%
Total strikes
31 of 80 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
3:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 4:14
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 76%Body 10%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.