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Alexander Gustafsson

18-8-0
39y·6' 5"·79" reach·Orthodox
2:28
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.50
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
70%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss January 2015. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Jul 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2012, 56 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Jul 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 18 recorded bouts, 751 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 70%Body 15%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 8%Ground 16%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body54%
Legs76%
Distance36%
Clinch56%
Ground75%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

10Wins5 KO · 2 SUB · 3 DEC
8Losses3 KO · 3 SUB · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

12%
Hamman
8%
Davis
66%
Diabate
22%
Huna
4%
Hamill
3%
Matyushenko
4%
Silva
26%
Rua
1%
Jones
54%
Manuwa
0%
Johnson
4%
Cormier
71%
Blachowicz
13%
Teixeira
0%
Jones
4%
Smith
8%
Werdum
10%
Krylov

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.79100%18
R24.08146%11
R35.59200%8
R45.51197%4
R54.41158%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.03
Strikes absorbed / min3.53
Striking accuracyof everything thrown40%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min1.53
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land39%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.56
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 18 bouts10.4m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

36.3%
Landed at range
1,583 thrown over 18 bouts
34.0%
Expected
against these opponents
+2.3pp
Gap
above expected
84.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LNikita KrylovJul 2022KO R10:07 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 8 · 63%
Total strikes
5 of 9 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:07
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 80%Body 20%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LFabricio WerdumJul 2020SUB R10:12 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 19 · 58%
Total strikes
14 of 22 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:30
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 82%Body 18%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 0%Ground 64%
This fight on UFCStats
LAnthony SmithJun 2019SUB R40:38 ctrl72 str1 td
Significant strikes
72 of 151 · 48%
Total strikes
73 of 152 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:38
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R4 2:38
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 36%Body 11%Legs 53%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 0%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
LJon JonesDec 2018KO R30:00 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 83 · 27%
Total strikes
24 of 85 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:02
Punches to Head From Back Control
Target
Head 55%Body 18%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WGlover TeixeiraMay 2017KO R52:50 ctrl97 str1 td
Significant strikes
97 of 228 · 43%
Total strikes
108 of 239 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
2:50
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 1:07
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 79%Body 11%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 7%Ground 13%
This fight on UFCStats
WJan BlachowiczSep 2016U-DEC10:43 ctrl50 str4 td
Significant strikes
50 of 100 · 50%
Total strikes
139 of 201 · 69%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
10:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 86%Body 6%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 30%Clinch 4%Ground 66%
This fight on UFCStats
LDaniel CormierOct 2015S-DEC1:00 ctrl120 str1 td
Significant strikes
120 of 254 · 47%
Total strikes
130 of 264 · 49%
Takedowns
1 of 7 · 14%
Control
1:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 19%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 13%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
LAnthony JohnsonJan 2015KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Total strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:15
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 80%Body 0%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJimi ManuwaMar 2014KO R23:24 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 43 · 49%
Total strikes
40 of 63 · 63%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
3:24
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:18
Knee to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 76%Body 10%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 24%Ground 19%
This fight on UFCStats
LJon JonesSep 2013U-DEC0:20 ctrl110 str1 td
Significant strikes
110 of 288 · 38%
Total strikes
114 of 294 · 39%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 30%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMauricio RuaDec 2012U-DEC3:53 ctrl72 str6 td
Significant strikes
72 of 156 · 46%
Total strikes
128 of 215 · 60%
Takedowns
6 of 12 · 50%
Control
3:53
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 13%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 14%Ground 21%
This fight on UFCStats
WThiago SilvaApr 2012U-DEC0:40 ctrl76 str1 td
Significant strikes
76 of 283 · 27%
Total strikes
78 of 287 · 27%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:40
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 9%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 4%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
WVladimir MatyushenkoDec 2011KO R10:04 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 21 · 48%
Total strikes
14 of 26 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:13
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 70%Body 10%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 0%Ground 40%
This fight on UFCStats
WMatt HamillAug 2011KO R20:21 ctrl37 str0 td
Significant strikes
37 of 98 · 38%
Total strikes
41 of 104 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:34
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 81%Body 11%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 51%Clinch 14%Ground 35%
This fight on UFCStats
WJames Te HunaFeb 2011SUB R10:58 ctrl4 str1 td
Significant strikes
4 of 9 · 44%
Total strikes
17 of 22 · 77%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:27
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 0%Ground 100%
This fight on UFCStats
WCyrille DiabateOct 2010SUB R25:04 ctrl28 str2 td
Significant strikes
28 of 56 · 50%
Total strikes
60 of 94 · 64%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
5:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:41
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 82%Body 7%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 25%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
LPhil DavisApr 2010SUB R10:25 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 5 · 0%
Total strikes
0 of 5 · 0%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:55
Anaconda Choke From Front Headlock
This fight on UFCStats
WJared HammanNov 2009KO R10:05 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 23 · 26%
Total strikes
6 of 23 · 26%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:41
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 0%Ground 67%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.