Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss June 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Sep 2023
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Andre Fialho
16-8-0 (1 NC)
32y·6' 0"·74" reach·Orthodox
0:31
Control / 15m
time on top
-2.96
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 202 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 69%Body 19%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 16%Ground 2%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body70%
Legs88%
Distance38%
Clinch89%
Ground45%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins2 KO
5Losses4 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
5%
Pereira
1%
Baeza
1%
VanCamp
0%
Matthews
3%
Salikhov
1%
Buckley
7%
Means
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.45100%7
R23.2394%5
R32.8883%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.3
Strikes absorbed / min6.26
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed45%
Takedowns / 15 min0.25
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land100%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.56
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts8.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
37.6%
Landed at range
439 thrown over 7 bouts
37.0%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.6pp
Gap
above expected
86.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LTim MeansSep 2023KO R30:48 ctrl51 str1 td
Significant strikes
51 of 103 · 50%
Total strikes
56 of 110 · 51%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:15
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 63%Body 29%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 31%Ground 0%
LJoaquin BuckleyMay 2023KO R20:07 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 51 · 43%
Total strikes
22 of 51 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:15
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 64%Body 32%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
LMuslim SalikhovNov 2022KO R30:20 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 66 · 26%
Total strikes
29 of 80 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:03
Kick to Head At Distance Wheel KickTarget
Head 59%Body 24%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
LJake MatthewsJun 2022KO R20:00 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 51 · 35%
Total strikes
19 of 52 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:24
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 72%Body 6%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WCameron VanCampMay 2022KO R10:02 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 24 · 71%
Total strikes
17 of 24 · 71%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:35
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 71%Body 12%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 0%Ground 6%
WMiguel BaezaApr 2022KO R10:03 ctrl32 str0 td
Significant strikes
32 of 56 · 57%
Total strikes
32 of 56 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:39
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 59%Body 16%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 16%Ground 6%
LMichel PereiraJan 2022U-DEC0:45 ctrl45 str0 td
Significant strikes
45 of 135 · 33%
Total strikes
48 of 138 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 89%Body 11%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 16%Ground 4%