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Asu Almabayev

24-3-0
32y·5' 4"·65" reach·Orthodox
7:20
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.34
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
43%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss March 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 8 recorded bouts, 238 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 54%Body 24%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 10%Ground 25%
And how often each lands
Head39%
Body76%
Legs91%
Distance45%
Clinch71%
Ground67%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins3 SUB · 4 DEC
1Losses1 KO

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

66%
Osbourne
64%
Vergara
76%
Johnson
35%
Nicolau
0%
Kape
63%
Ochoa
12%
Perez
65%
Johnson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.42100%8
R22.2894%8
R32.0685%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min2.28
Strikes absorbed / min1.94
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min4.74
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land45%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed44%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together4.22
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 8 bouts13.1m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

45.4%
Landed at range
339 thrown over 8 bouts
39.6%
Expected
against these opponents
+5.8pp
Gap
above expected
90.1%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WCharles JohnsonJun 2026SUB R38:48 ctrl28 str6 td
Significant strikes
28 of 51 · 55%
Total strikes
73 of 102 · 72%
Takedowns
6 of 9 · 67%
Control
8:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:33
Suloev Stretch From Back Control
Target
Head 54%Body 25%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 4%Ground 32%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlex PerezNov 2025SUB R31:12 ctrl36 str2 td
Significant strikes
36 of 90 · 40%
Total strikes
68 of 126 · 54%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
1:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 0:22
Guillotine Choke In Clinch
Target
Head 67%Body 22%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJose OchoaJul 2025U-DEC9:26 ctrl22 str7 td
Significant strikes
22 of 42 · 52%
Total strikes
55 of 90 · 61%
Takedowns
7 of 16 · 44%
Control
9:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 55%Body 23%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 14%Ground 27%
This fight on UFCStats
LManel KapeMar 2025KO R30:00 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 80 · 50%
Total strikes
40 of 81 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:16
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 48%Body 33%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMatheus NicolauOct 2024U-DEC5:17 ctrl22 str1 td
Significant strikes
22 of 54 · 41%
Total strikes
55 of 112 · 49%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
5:17
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 32%Body 36%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 5%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats
WJose JohnsonJun 2024U-DEC11:24 ctrl20 str6 td
Significant strikes
20 of 29 · 69%
Total strikes
77 of 109 · 71%
Takedowns
6 of 11 · 55%
Control
11:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
4
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 15%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 20%Clinch 25%Ground 55%
This fight on UFCStats
WCJ VergaraMar 2024U-DEC9:32 ctrl44 str9 td
Significant strikes
44 of 77 · 57%
Total strikes
85 of 132 · 64%
Takedowns
9 of 14 · 64%
Control
9:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 20%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 52%Clinch 18%Ground 30%
This fight on UFCStats
WOde OsbourneAug 2023SUB R25:24 ctrl26 str2 td
Significant strikes
26 of 40 · 65%
Total strikes
52 of 78 · 67%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
5:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:11
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 65%Body 19%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 35%Clinch 0%Ground 65%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.