Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss September 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Aug 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Augusto Sakai
16-5-1
35y·6' 3"·77" reach·Orthodox
2:35
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.77
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in September 2020, 116 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Aug 2022
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 9 recorded bouts, 430 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 59%Body 28%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 35%Ground 5%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body72%
Legs76%
Distance39%
Clinch80%
Ground83%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins3 KO · 3 DEC
4Losses4 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
8%
Sherman
14%
Arlovski
5%
Tybura
12%
Ivanov
12%
Overeem
0%
Rozenstruik
10%
Tuivasa
4%
Spivac
59%
Mayes
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.15100%9
R24.19133%7
R36.64211%5
R43.80—1
R50.00—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.6
Strikes absorbed / min3.83
Striking accuracyof everything thrown49%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed48%
Takedowns / 15 min0.23
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed56%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.43
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 9 bouts11.1m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
39.3%
Landed at range
661 thrown over 9 bouts
41.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.2pp
Gap
below expected
91.1%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WDon'Tale MayesFeb 2023U-DEC8:51 ctrl53 str1 td
Significant strikes
53 of 95 · 56%
Total strikes
107 of 173 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
8:51
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 34%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 57%Ground 4%
LSerghei SpivacAug 2022KO R20:23 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 23 · 35%
Total strikes
14 of 29 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:42
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 13%Body 75%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 75%Ground 0%
LTai TuivasaDec 2021KO R20:33 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 29 · 72%
Total strikes
40 of 49 · 82%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:26
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 29%Body 57%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 24%Clinch 76%Ground 0%
LJairzinho RozenstruikJun 2021KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 14 · 21%
Total strikes
3 of 14 · 21%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:59
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 0%Body 33%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LAlistair OvereemSep 2020KO R52:22 ctrl99 str0 td
Significant strikes
99 of 173 · 57%
Total strikes
120 of 196 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 0:26
Elbows to Head On GroundTarget
Head 67%Body 25%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 35%Ground 2%
WBlagoy IvanovMay 2020S-DEC1:46 ctrl78 str0 td
Significant strikes
78 of 161 · 48%
Total strikes
89 of 174 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:46
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 45%Body 36%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 18%Ground 3%
WMarcin TyburaSep 2019KO R10:03 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 27 · 56%
Total strikes
15 of 27 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:59
Punches to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 87%Body 13%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 47%Ground 13%
WAndrei ArlovskiApr 2019S-DEC2:02 ctrl42 str0 td
Significant strikes
42 of 132 · 32%
Total strikes
51 of 141 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
2:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 19%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 29%Ground 0%
WChase ShermanSep 2018KO R31:09 ctrl111 str1 td
Significant strikes
111 of 218 · 51%
Total strikes
125 of 233 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:03
Punches to Head From Side ControlTarget
Head 73%Body 19%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 27%Ground 11%