Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Lone'er Kavanagh
10-2-0
27y·5' 6"·67" reach·Orthodox
1:51
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.19
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
25%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 5 recorded bouts, 321 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 57%Body 25%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 8%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body71%
Legs73%
Distance47%
Clinch68%
Ground69%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins1 KO · 3 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 SUB
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Ochoa
44%
Santos
10%
Johnson
0%
Moreno
16%
Royval
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.20100%5
R25.93141%5
R32.6764%4
R41.60—1
R52.40—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.13
Strikes absorbed / min3.94
Striking accuracyof everything thrown50%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min1.12
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land46%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed82%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.07
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 5 bouts15.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
46.9%
Landed at range
550 thrown over 5 bouts
43.0%
Expected
against these opponents
+3.9pp
Gap
above expected
73.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LBrandon RoyvalJul 2026SUB R32:09 ctrl56 str1 td
Significant strikes
56 of 94 · 60%
Total strikes
63 of 101 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:40
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 55%Body 30%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 18%Ground 21%
WBrandon MorenoFeb 2026U-DEC0:00 ctrl97 str0 td
Significant strikes
97 of 205 · 47%
Total strikes
136 of 245 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 19%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
LCharles JohnsonAug 2025KO R20:59 ctrl59 str1 td
Significant strikes
59 of 120 · 49%
Total strikes
60 of 121 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:35
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 54%Body 36%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%
WFelipe dos SantosMar 2025U-DEC6:33 ctrl58 str4 td
Significant strikes
58 of 97 · 60%
Total strikes
71 of 112 · 63%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
6:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 19%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 5%Ground 45%
WJose OchoaNov 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl51 str0 td
Significant strikes
51 of 126 · 40%
Total strikes
51 of 126 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 24%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%