Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss May 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Bo Nickal
9-1-0
30y·6' 1"·76" reach·Southpaw
5:01
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.43
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
88%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 171 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 64%Body 19%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 8%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head54%
Body75%
Legs88%
Distance60%
Clinch68%
Ground72%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
8Wins3 KO · 4 SUB · 1 DEC
1Losses1 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
86%
Pickett
5%
Woodburn
86%
Brundage
0%
Craig
35%
Ridder
12%
Vieira
71%
Daukaus
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.67100%7
R24.45167%4
R33.65—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.36
Strikes absorbed / min1.93
Striking accuracyof everything thrown61%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed60%
Takedowns / 15 min3.12
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land57%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed100%
Sub attempts / 15 min2.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.29
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts7.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
59.6%
Landed at range
230 thrown over 7 bouts
45.6%
Expected
against these opponents
+13.9pp
Gap
above expected
82.6%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WKyle DaukausJun 2026KO R13:14 ctrl16 str1 td
Significant strikes
16 of 24 · 67%
Total strikes
44 of 53 · 83%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:14
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:34
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 94%Body 0%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 44%Clinch 0%Ground 56%
WRodolfo VieiraNov 2025KO R31:28 ctrl77 str2 td
Significant strikes
77 of 121 · 64%
Total strikes
94 of 143 · 66%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
1:28
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:24
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 73%Body 17%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 9%Ground 8%
LReinier de RidderMay 2025KO R22:24 ctrl8 str1 td
Significant strikes
8 of 21 · 38%
Total strikes
24 of 40 · 60%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:53
Knee to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 25%Body 50%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 63%Ground 0%
WPaul CraigNov 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 85 · 64%
Total strikes
54 of 85 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 24%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WCody BrundageApr 2024SUB R27:25 ctrl8 str3 td
Significant strikes
8 of 13 · 62%
Total strikes
45 of 59 · 76%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
7:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:38
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 0%Ground 63%
WVal WoodburnJul 2023KO R10:02 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 10 · 70%
Total strikes
7 of 10 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:38
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 0%Ground 14%
WJamie PickettMar 2023SUB R12:30 ctrl1 str1 td
Significant strikes
1 of 4 · 25%
Total strikes
3 of 6 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
2:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:54
Arm Triangle From Half GuardTarget
Head 0%Body 100%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 100%Ground 0%