Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss November 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Bogdan Grad
16-4-0
30y·5' 8"·70" reach·Orthodox
6:46
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.86
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 4 recorded bouts, 128 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 68%Body 18%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 41%Clinch 19%Ground 41%
And how often each lands
Head54%
Body72%
Legs75%
Distance43%
Clinch77%
Ground79%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
3Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC
3Losses2 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
46%
Alexander
34%
Naimov
71%
Riley
46%
Buzukja
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.65100%4
R24.79181%4
R31.20—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.16
Strikes absorbed / min5.02
Striking accuracyof everything thrown53%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed49%
Takedowns / 15 min4.57
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land38%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed75%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.18
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 4 bouts9.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
43.3%
Landed at range
120 thrown over 4 bouts
—
Expected
against these opponents
—
Gap
below the cutoffs
—
Coverage
from real records
It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WDennis BuzukjaAug 2026SUB R24:24 ctrl44 str4 td
Significant strikes
44 of 74 · 59%
Total strikes
67 of 100 · 67%
Takedowns
4 of 12 · 33%
Control
4:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:33
Arm Triangle From Half GuardTarget
Head 73%Body 16%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 14%Ground 32%
LLuke RileyNov 2025KO R23:55 ctrl7 str4 td
Significant strikes
7 of 13 · 54%
Total strikes
17 of 24 · 71%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
3:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:30
Punches to Head From GuardTarget
Head 86%Body 14%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 14%Clinch 29%Ground 57%
LMuhammad NaimovJun 2025U-DEC5:09 ctrl31 str3 td
Significant strikes
31 of 64 · 48%
Total strikes
49 of 88 · 56%
Takedowns
3 of 10 · 30%
Control
5:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 23%Body 45%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 42%Ground 0%
WLucas AlexanderFeb 2025KO R24:18 ctrl46 str3 td
Significant strikes
46 of 66 · 70%
Total strikes
59 of 86 · 69%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
4:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:22
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 91%Body 2%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 20%Clinch 7%Ground 74%