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Brian Kelleher

24-16-0
40y·5' 6"·66" reach·Switch
3:50
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.28
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
63%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss May 2018. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Dec 2023

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2018, 114 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Dec 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 442 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 65%Body 15%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 7%Ground 15%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body48%
Legs78%
Distance37%
Clinch67%
Ground77%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

8Wins2 KO · 3 SUB · 3 DEC
9Losses2 KO · 5 SUB · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

0%
Alcantara
46%
Vera
33%
Stasiak
29%
Barao
5%
Lineker
5%
Jackson
70%
Osbourne
6%
Azure
5%
Stamann
0%
Rodriguez
1%
Simon
85%
Pilarte
43%
Croom
3%
Nurmagomedov
0%
Bautista
16%
Garbrandt
2%
Gibson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.40100%17
R23.44143%8
R34.91205%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.31
Strikes absorbed / min4.59
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min1.68
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land41%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed60%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.9
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts7.9m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

36.8%
Landed at range
937 thrown over 17 bouts
38.1%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.3pp
Gap
below expected
81.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LCody GibsonJul 2024SUB R10:05 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 12 · 17%
Total strikes
2 of 13 · 15%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:58
Arm Triangle From Half Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LCody GarbrandtDec 2023KO R10:36 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 25 · 68%
Total strikes
21 of 29 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:42
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 53%Body 6%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMario BautistaJun 2022SUB R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 3 · 67%
Total strikes
2 of 3 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:27
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LUmar NurmagomedovMar 2022SUB R10:06 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 19 · 5%
Total strikes
1 of 19 · 5%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:15
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKevin CroomJan 2022U-DEC6:26 ctrl38 str6 td
Significant strikes
38 of 77 · 49%
Total strikes
67 of 123 · 54%
Takedowns
6 of 8 · 75%
Control
6:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 32%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 66%Clinch 8%Ground 26%
This fight on UFCStats
WDomingo PilarteAug 2021U-DEC12:49 ctrl28 str3 td
Significant strikes
28 of 40 · 70%
Total strikes
236 of 279 · 85%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
12:49
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 86%Body 7%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 4%Clinch 0%Ground 96%
This fight on UFCStats
LRicky SimonFeb 2021U-DEC0:12 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 73 · 26%
Total strikes
25 of 83 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 37%Body 21%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRay RodriguezSep 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Total strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 0:39
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LCody StamannJun 2020U-DEC0:44 ctrl57 str1 td
Significant strikes
57 of 177 · 32%
Total strikes
64 of 185 · 35%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 46%Body 21%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 5%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WHunter AzureMay 2020KO R20:29 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 99 · 29%
Total strikes
32 of 102 · 31%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:40
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 62%Body 17%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 0%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
WOde OsbourneJan 2020SUB R11:58 ctrl7 str1 td
Significant strikes
7 of 12 · 58%
Total strikes
28 of 34 · 82%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:49
Guillotine Choke On Ground
Target
Head 71%Body 0%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 0%Ground 57%
This fight on UFCStats
LMontel JacksonDec 2018SUB R10:05 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 10 · 60%
Total strikes
6 of 10 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:40
D'Arce Choke On Ground
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJohn LinekerMay 2018KO R30:43 ctrl50 str1 td
Significant strikes
50 of 137 · 36%
Total strikes
58 of 147 · 39%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:43
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 82%Body 12%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 6%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WRenan BaraoFeb 2018U-DEC4:23 ctrl94 str1 td
Significant strikes
94 of 203 · 46%
Total strikes
145 of 256 · 57%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
4:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 14%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDamian StasiakOct 2017KO R34:34 ctrl79 str1 td
Significant strikes
79 of 147 · 54%
Total strikes
116 of 194 · 60%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
4:34
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:39
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 70%Body 9%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 10%Ground 29%
This fight on UFCStats
LMarlon VeraJul 2017SUB R11:03 ctrl8 str1 td
Significant strikes
8 of 16 · 50%
Total strikes
14 of 22 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
1:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:18
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 25%Body 38%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 38%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WIuri AlcantaraJun 2017SUB R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 15 · 27%
Total strikes
4 of 15 · 27%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:48
Guillotine Choke From Bottom Half Guard
Target
Head 25%Body 50%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.