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Casey O'Neill

11-2-0
28y·5' 6"·69" reach·Orthodox
3:45
Control / 15m
time on top
+2.36
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in February 2022, 58 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 8 recorded bouts, 677 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 77%Body 14%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 5%Ground 14%
And how often each lands
Head47%
Body78%
Legs94%
Distance49%
Clinch76%
Ground76%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

6Wins3 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
2Losses1 SUB · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

86%
Dobson
44%
Procopio
58%
Shevchenko
0%
Modafferi
0%
Maia
5%
Silva
16%
Santos
0%
Fernandes

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R16.78100%8
R28.69128%7
R38.88131%4

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min7.89
Strikes absorbed / min5.53
Striking accuracyof everything thrown52%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed57%
Takedowns / 15 min1.4
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land34%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed70%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together13.42
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 8 bouts10.7m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

Women's divisions sit this one out for now. The baseline leans on how far striking has drifted era to era, and there isn't enough sample in the women's divisions to measure that drift. Building a baseline anyway would claim a precision we haven't earned.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WGabriella FernandesMar 2026KO R10:00 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 66 · 38%
Total strikes
25 of 66 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:11
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 64%Body 12%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WLuana SantosAug 2024U-DEC2:21 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 193 · 43%
Total strikes
113 of 227 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 14%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 6%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LAriane da SilvaDec 2023SUB R20:20 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 74 · 42%
Total strikes
32 of 75 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:18
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 55%Body 10%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJennifer MaiaMar 2023U-DEC0:00 ctrl137 str0 td
Significant strikes
137 of 264 · 52%
Total strikes
137 of 264 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 18%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRoxanne ModafferiFeb 2022S-DEC0:02 ctrl229 str0 td
Significant strikes
229 of 393 · 58%
Total strikes
230 of 395 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 82%Body 10%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAntonina ShevchenkoOct 2021KO R25:39 ctrl52 str3 td
Significant strikes
52 of 110 · 47%
Total strikes
128 of 209 · 61%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
5:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:47
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 88%Body 8%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 4%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
WLara ProcopioJun 2021SUB R35:42 ctrl71 str1 td
Significant strikes
71 of 129 · 55%
Total strikes
176 of 246 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
5:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:54
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 58%Body 32%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 13%Ground 27%
This fight on UFCStats
WShana DobsonFeb 2021KO R27:26 ctrl49 str4 td
Significant strikes
49 of 68 · 72%
Total strikes
132 of 183 · 72%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
7:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:41
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 90%Body 6%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 35%Clinch 2%Ground 63%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.