Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss July 2026. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Cesar Almeida
7-3-0
38y·6' 1"·74" reach·Orthodox
0:52
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.50
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 213 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 39%Body 36%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 14%Ground 9%
And how often each lands
Head46%
Body72%
Legs79%
Distance57%
Clinch94%
Ground58%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 2 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
3%
Budka
0%
Kopylov
15%
Potieria
1%
Alhassan
3%
Oleksiejczuk
12%
Pinas
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.72100%6
R24.42119%4
R31.9352%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.73
Strikes absorbed / min2.23
Striking accuracyof everything thrown60%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed44%
Takedowns / 15 min0.2
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed53%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.96
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts10.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
56.6%
Landed at range
290 thrown over 6 bouts
39.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+17.5pp
Gap
above expected
67.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LDamian PinasJul 2026KO R10:33 ctrl37 str1 td
Significant strikes
37 of 50 · 74%
Total strikes
39 of 52 · 75%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:44
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 22%Body 41%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LCezary OleksiejczukDec 2025U-DEC0:29 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 20 · 60%
Total strikes
25 of 37 · 68%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 17%Body 58%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WAbdul Razak AlhassanJan 2025KO R10:03 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 29 · 69%
Total strikes
21 of 30 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:16
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 15%Body 45%Legs 40%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 20%Ground 0%
WIhor PotieriaOct 2024U-DEC2:15 ctrl57 str0 td
Significant strikes
57 of 113 · 50%
Total strikes
78 of 137 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 25%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 2%Ground 26%
LRoman KopylovJun 2024S-DEC0:00 ctrl58 str0 td
Significant strikes
58 of 105 · 55%
Total strikes
114 of 162 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 31%Body 41%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 10%Ground 2%
WDylan BudkaApr 2024KO R20:12 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 38 · 76%
Total strikes
87 of 101 · 86%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:13
Elbows to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 72%Body 24%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 24%Clinch 66%Ground 10%