Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Mar 2026
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Chase Hooper
17-5-1
26y·6' 1"·74" reach·Southpaw
5:21
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.47
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
70%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2020, 81 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Mar 2026
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 14 recorded bouts, 505 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 71%Body 18%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 12%Ground 27%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body74%
Legs83%
Distance40%
Clinch58%
Ground70%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
10Wins2 KO · 5 SUB · 3 DEC
5Losses3 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
70%
Teymur
20%
Caceres
6%
Barrett
19%
Peterson
54%
Colares
0%
Garcia
26%
Fiore
32%
Leavitt
76%
Borshchev
58%
Guida
68%
Miller
2%
Hernandez
3%
Jr.
64%
Ramirez
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.39100%14
R24.39100%7
R34.0893%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.44
Strikes absorbed / min2.97
Striking accuracyof everything thrown49%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed39%
Takedowns / 15 min2.5
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land32%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed55%
Sub attempts / 15 min2.2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.41
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 14 bouts8.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
40.5%
Landed at range
768 thrown over 14 bouts
41.7%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.2pp
Gap
below expected
80.1%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WMitch RamirezJul 2026SUB R11:27 ctrl3 str1 td
Significant strikes
3 of 7 · 43%
Total strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:15
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LLance Gibson Jr.Mar 2026KO R10:06 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 32 · 34%
Total strikes
13 of 34 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:56
Knees to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 27%Body 45%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LAlexander HernandezAug 2025KO R10:05 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 82 · 24%
Total strikes
20 of 82 · 24%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:58
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 35%Body 35%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WJim MillerApr 2025U-DEC10:08 ctrl21 str8 td
Significant strikes
21 of 44 · 48%
Total strikes
59 of 94 · 63%
Takedowns
8 of 14 · 57%
Control
10:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 33%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 5%Ground 10%
WClay GuidaDec 2024SUB R12:08 ctrl7 str3 td
Significant strikes
7 of 15 · 47%
Total strikes
14 of 28 · 50%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
2:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:41
Armbar From MountTarget
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 14%Ground 14%
WViacheslav BorshchevMay 2024SUB R26:03 ctrl62 str1 td
Significant strikes
62 of 109 · 57%
Total strikes
129 of 217 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
6:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:00
D'Arce Choke On GroundTarget
Head 94%Body 6%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 6%Clinch 0%Ground 94%
WJordan LeavittNov 2023SUB R10:57 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Total strikes
13 of 18 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:58
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 0%Ground 100%
WNick FioreMay 2023U-DEC3:54 ctrl149 str1 td
Significant strikes
149 of 245 · 61%
Total strikes
217 of 340 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 10 · 10%
Control
3:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 21%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 28%Ground 7%
LSteve GarciaOct 2022KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 30 · 33%
Total strikes
10 of 32 · 31%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:32
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 70%Body 20%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WFelipe ColaresMay 2022KO R37:04 ctrl60 str4 td
Significant strikes
60 of 93 · 65%
Total strikes
140 of 188 · 74%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
7:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
5
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:00
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 18%Clinch 17%Ground 65%
LSteven PetersonJun 2021U-DEC2:55 ctrl31 str3 td
Significant strikes
31 of 61 · 51%
Total strikes
98 of 132 · 74%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
2:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 29%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%
WPeter BarrettDec 2020SUB R30:44 ctrl57 str0 td
Significant strikes
57 of 117 · 49%
Total strikes
81 of 144 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:02
Heel Hook On GroundTarget
Head 32%Body 18%Legs 51%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 0%Ground 4%
LAlex CaceresJun 2020U-DEC2:56 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 187 · 28%
Total strikes
60 of 197 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 21%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 8%Ground 6%
WDaniel TeymurDec 2019KO R13:13 ctrl20 str1 td
Significant strikes
20 of 36 · 56%
Total strikes
37 of 70 · 53%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
3:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:34
Elbows to Head From MountTarget
Head 85%Body 10%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 15%Clinch 5%Ground 80%