Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Chris Barnett
23-10-0
40y·5' 9"·75" reach·Orthodox
0:28
Control / 15m
time on top
-3.19
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 178 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 58%Body 12%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 8%Ground 21%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body72%
Legs83%
Distance43%
Clinch61%
Ground63%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins2 KO
4Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Rothwell
3%
Villante
2%
Buday
15%
Collier
0%
Nzechukwu
0%
Abdelwahab
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.78100%6
R25.15185%5
R31.36—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.36
Strikes absorbed / min6.55
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed36%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed35%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.91
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts8.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
43.3%
Landed at range
291 thrown over 6 bouts
48.4%
Expected
against these opponents
−5.1pp
Gap
below expected
80.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LHamdy AbdelwahabOct 2025U-DEC0:00 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 35 · 51%
Total strikes
28 of 46 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 22%Legs 39%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 17%Ground 6%
LKennedy NzechukwuOct 2024KO R10:00 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 34 · 35%
Total strikes
12 of 34 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:27
Knee to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 25%Body 17%Legs 58%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WJake CollierSep 2022KO R21:07 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 98 · 55%
Total strikes
83 of 132 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:24
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 89%Body 2%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 46%Clinch 2%Ground 52%
LMartin BudayApr 2022U-DEC R30:17 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 52 · 44%
Total strikes
44 of 73 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, R3 1:38
Target
Head 52%Body 26%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 30%Ground 0%
WGian VillanteNov 2021KO R20:12 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 70 · 54%
Total strikes
44 of 76 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:23
Kick to Head At Distance Wheel KickTarget
Head 34%Body 11%Legs 55%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 3%Ground 24%
LBen RothwellMay 2021SUB R20:02 ctrl33 str0 td
Significant strikes
33 of 85 · 39%
Total strikes
34 of 86 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:07
Guillotine Choke From Side ControlTarget
Head 61%Body 12%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%