Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Chris Curtis
32-13-0 (1 NC)
39y·5' 10"·75" reach·Orthodox
0:18
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.23
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
57%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2022, 162 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Jan 2025
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 12 recorded bouts, 848 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 68%Body 27%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 6%Ground 2%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body72%
Legs88%
Distance48%
Clinch81%
Ground76%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
7Wins4 KO · 3 DEC
5Losses1 KO · 4 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
1%
Hawes
10%
Allen
4%
Vieira
0%
Hermansson
1%
Buckley
0%
Gastelum
0%
Imavov
0%
Barriault
5%
Allen
0%
Kopylov
2%
Griffin
1%
Orolbai
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.55100%12
R26.74190%11
R36.83192%8
R44.20—1
R54.20—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.52
Strikes absorbed / min5.75
Striking accuracyof everything thrown50%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed54%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed64%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together11.27
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 12 bouts13.1m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
47.7%
Landed at range
1,635 thrown over 12 bouts
41.9%
Expected
against these opponents
+5.8pp
Gap
above expected
91.8%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LMyktybek OrolbaiMar 2026U-DEC0:06 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 31 · 39%
Total strikes
57 of 81 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 17%Ground 8%
WMax GriffinJul 2025S-DEC0:14 ctrl64 str0 td
Significant strikes
64 of 155 · 41%
Total strikes
71 of 162 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 28%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
LRoman KopylovJan 2025KO R30:00 ctrl142 str0 td
Significant strikes
142 of 261 · 54%
Total strikes
146 of 265 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:59
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 75%Body 21%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LBrendan AllenApr 2024S-DEC1:18 ctrl124 str0 td
Significant strikes
124 of 241 · 51%
Total strikes
141 of 261 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 20%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WMarc-Andre BarriaultJan 2024S-DEC0:00 ctrl140 str0 td
Significant strikes
140 of 258 · 54%
Total strikes
144 of 262 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 25%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
NCNassourdine ImavovJun 2023NC R20:00 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 61 · 43%
Total strikes
34 of 69 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R2 3:04
Accidental Head ButtTarget
Head 15%Body 31%Legs 54%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LKelvin GastelumApr 2023U-DEC0:01 ctrl70 str0 td
Significant strikes
70 of 201 · 35%
Total strikes
80 of 216 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 30%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%
WJoaquin BuckleyDec 2022KO R20:06 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 87 · 41%
Total strikes
36 of 87 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:49
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 69%Body 8%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 3%Ground 17%
LJack HermanssonJul 2022U-DEC0:00 ctrl43 str0 td
Significant strikes
43 of 125 · 34%
Total strikes
43 of 125 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 42%Body 58%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
WRodolfo VieiraJun 2022U-DEC0:35 ctrl109 str0 td
Significant strikes
109 of 174 · 63%
Total strikes
128 of 193 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 27%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 2%Ground 3%
WBrendan AllenDec 2021KO R20:43 ctrl61 str0 td
Significant strikes
61 of 90 · 68%
Total strikes
64 of 96 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:58
Knees to Body In ClinchTarget
Head 62%Body 33%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 16%Ground 3%
WPhil HawesNov 2021KO R10:03 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 36 · 58%
Total strikes
22 of 37 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:27
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 71%Body 24%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 10%Ground 5%