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Chris Duncan

15-3-0
33y·5' 10"·71" reach·Orthodox
3:17
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.26
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
57%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2025, 175 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 8 recorded bouts, 321 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 60%Body 23%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 7%Ground 11%
And how often each lands
Head38%
Body72%
Legs64%
Distance42%
Clinch76%
Ground83%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins1 KO · 3 SUB · 3 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 2 SUB

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

43%
Morales
5%
Ashmouz
38%
Torres
0%
Oki
65%
Vucenic
3%
Rebecki
47%
McKinney
0%
Moicano

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.18100%8
R23.7089%5
R36.87164%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.83
Strikes absorbed / min4.57
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min2.92
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed55%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.4
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 8 bouts8.7m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

42.3%
Landed at range
624 thrown over 8 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LRenato MoicanoApr 2026SUB R20:01 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 62 · 44%
Total strikes
30 of 66 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:14
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 30%Body 19%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WTerrance McKinneyDec 2025SUB R11:10 ctrl38 str1 td
Significant strikes
38 of 55 · 69%
Total strikes
53 of 75 · 71%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:10
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:30
Anaconda Choke On Ground
Target
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 26%Clinch 16%Ground 58%
This fight on UFCStats
WMateusz RebeckiAug 2025U-DEC0:27 ctrl92 str0 td
Significant strikes
92 of 222 · 41%
Total strikes
95 of 225 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 22%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJordan VucenicMar 2025SUB R25:37 ctrl15 str4 td
Significant strikes
15 of 40 · 38%
Total strikes
24 of 50 · 48%
Takedowns
4 of 5 · 80%
Control
5:37
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:42
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Guard
Target
Head 60%Body 33%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 53%Clinch 7%Ground 40%
This fight on UFCStats
WBolaji OkiSep 2024SUB R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 25 · 40%
Total strikes
12 of 29 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:34
Guillotine Choke From Guard
Target
Head 70%Body 10%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LManuel TorresFeb 2024SUB R10:40 ctrl1 str1 td
Significant strikes
1 of 2 · 50%
Total strikes
1 of 2 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:46
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WYanal AshmouzJul 2023U-DEC0:48 ctrl85 str2 td
Significant strikes
85 of 206 · 41%
Total strikes
87 of 209 · 42%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
0:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 27%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WOmar MoralesMar 2023S-DEC6:31 ctrl53 str5 td
Significant strikes
53 of 83 · 64%
Total strikes
62 of 92 · 67%
Takedowns
5 of 14 · 36%
Control
6:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 23%Body 32%Legs 45%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 6%Ground 13%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.