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Cub Swanson

31-14-0
42y·5' 8"·70" reach·Orthodox
1:06
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.85
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
48%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss May 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Oct 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2013, 79 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Oct 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 26 recorded bouts, 1645 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 60%Body 20%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 10%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body75%
Legs79%
Distance49%
Clinch80%
Ground73%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

21Wins8 KO · 2 SUB · 11 DEC
13Losses3 KO · 6 SUB · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

10%
Lamas
15%
Roop
1%
Pearson
1%
Oliveira
20%
Poirier
8%
Siver
1%
Stephens
0%
Edgar
1%
Holloway
20%
Dias
13%
Kawajiri
17%
Choi
10%
Lobov
3%
Ortega
0%
Edgar
0%
Moicano
11%
Burgos
4%
Gracie
23%
Pineda
0%
Chikadze
7%
Elkins
4%
Martinez
9%
Dawodu
3%
Fili
1%
Quarantillo
2%
Landwehr

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.54100%26
R25.52122%21
R36.63146%15
R44.2794%3
R54.83106%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.84
Strikes absorbed / min3.99
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed59%
Takedowns / 15 min1
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land50%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed63%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.4
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.83
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 26 bouts11.9m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

49.3%
Landed at range
2,764 thrown over 26 bouts
35.9%
Expected
against these opponents
+13.4pp
Gap
above expected
79.8%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WNate LandwehrApr 2026KO R10:06 ctrl37 str0 td
Significant strikes
37 of 49 · 76%
Total strikes
40 of 52 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:06
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 62%Body 19%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WBilly QuarantilloDec 2024KO R30:10 ctrl99 str0 td
Significant strikes
99 of 158 · 63%
Total strikes
114 of 173 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:10
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:36
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 75%Body 13%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAndre FiliJun 2024S-DEC0:29 ctrl62 str0 td
Significant strikes
62 of 111 · 56%
Total strikes
90 of 140 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 11%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WHakeem DawoduAug 2023U-DEC1:25 ctrl77 str1 td
Significant strikes
77 of 156 · 49%
Total strikes
107 of 195 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 35%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 23%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJonathan MartinezOct 2022KO R20:20 ctrl51 str1 td
Significant strikes
51 of 79 · 65%
Total strikes
60 of 88 · 68%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:19
Kick to Leg At Distance
Target
Head 20%Body 18%Legs 63%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDarren ElkinsDec 2021KO R10:09 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 30 · 60%
Total strikes
18 of 30 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:12
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 89%Body 11%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 0%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LGiga ChikadzeMay 2021KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Total strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:03
Kick to Body At Distance
Target
Head 25%Body 0%Legs 75%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDaniel PinedaDec 2020KO R21:34 ctrl46 str1 td
Significant strikes
46 of 66 · 70%
Total strikes
51 of 71 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:34
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:52
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 76%Body 15%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 7%Ground 13%
This fight on UFCStats
WKron GracieOct 2019U-DEC0:36 ctrl135 str0 td
Significant strikes
135 of 288 · 47%
Total strikes
143 of 296 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 62%Body 30%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 18%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LShane BurgosMay 2019S-DEC1:37 ctrl129 str0 td
Significant strikes
129 of 256 · 50%
Total strikes
132 of 260 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 11%Legs 38%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 9%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
LRenato MoicanoAug 2018SUB R10:00 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 38 · 53%
Total strikes
20 of 38 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:15
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 25%Body 15%Legs 60%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LFrankie EdgarApr 2018U-DEC0:00 ctrl48 str0 td
Significant strikes
48 of 130 · 37%
Total strikes
50 of 132 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 23%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrian OrtegaDec 2017SUB R20:14 ctrl60 str0 td
Significant strikes
60 of 97 · 62%
Total strikes
60 of 97 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 3:22
Guillotine Choke Standing
Target
Head 40%Body 33%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WArtem LobovApr 2017U-DEC2:23 ctrl209 str2 td
Significant strikes
209 of 296 · 71%
Total strikes
251 of 344 · 73%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
2:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 55%Body 22%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 14%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
WDooho ChoiDec 2016U-DEC2:31 ctrl111 str2 td
Significant strikes
111 of 210 · 53%
Total strikes
122 of 226 · 54%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
2:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 26%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 20%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
WTatsuya KawajiriAug 2016U-DEC2:00 ctrl67 str1 td
Significant strikes
67 of 109 · 61%
Total strikes
91 of 133 · 68%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 15%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 12%Ground 31%
This fight on UFCStats
WHacran DiasApr 2016U-DEC2:56 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 148 · 56%
Total strikes
95 of 161 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:56
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 28%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 2%Ground 34%
This fight on UFCStats
LMax HollowayApr 2015SUB R30:07 ctrl56 str0 td
Significant strikes
56 of 136 · 41%
Total strikes
58 of 138 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:58
Guillotine Choke After Drop to Ground
Target
Head 52%Body 18%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LFrankie EdgarNov 2014SUB R50:00 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 86 · 36%
Total strikes
62 of 119 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R5 4:56
Neck Crank From Back Control
Target
Head 81%Body 10%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 0%Ground 10%
This fight on UFCStats
WJeremy StephensJun 2014U-DEC0:14 ctrl87 str0 td
Significant strikes
87 of 219 · 40%
Total strikes
103 of 236 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 10%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDennis SiverJul 2013KO R31:03 ctrl43 str1 td
Significant strikes
43 of 101 · 43%
Total strikes
47 of 105 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:24
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 74%Body 14%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 0%Ground 33%
This fight on UFCStats
WDustin PoirierFeb 2013U-DEC3:01 ctrl58 str2 td
Significant strikes
58 of 126 · 46%
Total strikes
80 of 150 · 53%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
3:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 19%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 9%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
WCharles OliveiraSep 2012KO R10:02 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 21 · 43%
Total strikes
9 of 21 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:40
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 67%Body 22%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRoss PearsonJun 2012KO R20:05 ctrl45 str0 td
Significant strikes
45 of 104 · 43%
Total strikes
51 of 115 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:14
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 87%Body 4%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 2%Ground 9%
This fight on UFCStats
WGeorge RoopJan 2012KO R21:08 ctrl43 str2 td
Significant strikes
43 of 66 · 65%
Total strikes
50 of 74 · 68%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
1:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:22
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 56%Body 21%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 65%Clinch 12%Ground 23%
This fight on UFCStats
LRicardo LamasNov 2011SUB R20:42 ctrl17 str1 td
Significant strikes
17 of 43 · 40%
Total strikes
20 of 47 · 43%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:16
Arm Triangle From Side Control
Target
Head 59%Body 12%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.