Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss July 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Da'Mon Blackshear
17-8-1
32y·5' 10"·72" reach·Switch
3:27
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.14
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
80%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in June 2023, 79 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Jul 2024
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 439 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 55%Body 23%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 14%Ground 8%
And how often each lands
Head36%
Body68%
Legs74%
Distance41%
Clinch82%
Ground77%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 KO · 3 SUB · 1 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
26%
Zalal
18%
Basharat
25%
Lacerda
78%
Johnson
20%
Bautista
0%
Jackson
31%
Stamann
39%
Gibson
0%
Alatengheili
26%
Grant
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.64100%10
R24.74130%7
R34.96136%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.33
Strikes absorbed / min4.19
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min1.48
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed71%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.52
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts10.2m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.0%
Landed at range
836 thrown over 10 bouts
41.5%
Expected
against these opponents
−0.5pp
Gap
below expected
77.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LDavey GrantJul 2025U-DEC3:52 ctrl33 str1 td
Significant strikes
33 of 74 · 45%
Total strikes
36 of 78 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
3:52
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 36%Body 21%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 3%Ground 3%
WAlatengheiliApr 2025U-DEC0:00 ctrl125 str0 td
Significant strikes
125 of 273 · 46%
Total strikes
127 of 275 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 30%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WCody GibsonMar 2025SUB R23:32 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 39 · 33%
Total strikes
46 of 74 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
3:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R2 4:09
Kimura From Side ControlTarget
Head 85%Body 15%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
WCody StamannNov 2024SUB R11:19 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 44 · 45%
Total strikes
21 of 46 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:19
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 75%Body 15%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
LMontel JacksonJul 2024KO R10:00 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 1 · 100%
Total strikes
1 of 1 · 100%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:18
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LMario BautistaAug 2023U-DEC3:00 ctrl90 str4 td
Significant strikes
90 of 174 · 52%
Total strikes
108 of 192 · 56%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
3:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 24%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 41%Ground 1%
WJose JohnsonAug 2023SUB R12:57 ctrl18 str2 td
Significant strikes
18 of 30 · 60%
Total strikes
30 of 46 · 65%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
2:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:47
Twister From Back ControlTarget
Head 39%Body 11%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 28%Clinch 33%Ground 39%
WLuan LacerdaJun 2023KO R22:14 ctrl66 str1 td
Significant strikes
66 of 135 · 49%
Total strikes
85 of 158 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:54
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 64%Body 17%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 12%Ground 30%
LFarid BasharatMar 2023U-DEC2:38 ctrl46 str1 td
Significant strikes
46 of 117 · 39%
Total strikes
91 of 164 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
2:38
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 26%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 15%Ground 7%
DYoussef ZalalAug 2022M-DEC3:51 ctrl27 str1 td
Significant strikes
27 of 69 · 39%
Total strikes
40 of 91 · 44%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
3:51
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
2
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 37%Body 22%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%