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Derek Brunson

23-9-0
42y·6' 1"·77" reach·Southpaw
5:48
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.46
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
59%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.9
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss January 2014. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Mar 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 21 recorded bouts, 648 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 71%Body 15%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 15%Ground 23%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body66%
Legs71%
Distance40%
Clinch66%
Ground61%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

17Wins7 KO · 3 SUB · 7 DEC
8Losses7 KO · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

49%
Leben
63%
Houston
22%
Romero
71%
Larkin
14%
Herman
65%
Alvey
27%
Carneiro
61%
Hall
29%
Whittaker
25%
Silva
3%
Kelly
2%
Machida
0%
Souza
32%
Adesanya
22%
Theodorou
15%
Heinisch
30%
Shahbazyan
68%
Holland
60%
Till
28%
Cannonier
25%
Plessis

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.72100%21
R23.6799%11
R33.78102%9
R41.601
R51.601

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.51
Strikes absorbed / min3.05
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed51%
Takedowns / 15 min3.14
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed85%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.56
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 21 bouts8.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

40.3%
Landed at range
1,004 thrown over 21 bouts
36.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+3.8pp
Gap
above expected
77.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LDricus Du PlessisMar 2023KO R22:30 ctrl37 str1 td
Significant strikes
37 of 84 · 44%
Total strikes
43 of 90 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:59
Punches to Head From Guard Corner Stoppage
Target
Head 73%Body 24%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 8%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LJared CannonierFeb 2022KO R22:38 ctrl43 str3 td
Significant strikes
43 of 97 · 44%
Total strikes
48 of 103 · 47%
Takedowns
3 of 13 · 23%
Control
2:38
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:29
Elbows to Head On Ground
Target
Head 58%Body 28%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 2%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WDarren TillSep 2021SUB R37:23 ctrl41 str3 td
Significant strikes
41 of 84 · 49%
Total strikes
101 of 145 · 70%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
7:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:13
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 90%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 22%Clinch 7%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
WKevin HollandMar 2021U-DEC16:55 ctrl43 str6 td
Significant strikes
43 of 93 · 46%
Total strikes
226 of 323 · 70%
Takedowns
6 of 12 · 50%
Control
16:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 16%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 23%Ground 44%
This fight on UFCStats
WEdmen ShahbazyanAug 2020KO R33:06 ctrl88 str4 td
Significant strikes
88 of 145 · 61%
Total strikes
107 of 164 · 65%
Takedowns
4 of 8 · 50%
Control
3:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:26
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 66%Body 17%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 10%Ground 30%
This fight on UFCStats
WIan HeinischAug 2019U-DEC2:13 ctrl81 str2 td
Significant strikes
81 of 185 · 44%
Total strikes
102 of 207 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
2:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 32%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 9%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
WElias TheodorouMay 2019U-DEC3:17 ctrl56 str4 td
Significant strikes
56 of 94 · 60%
Total strikes
65 of 103 · 63%
Takedowns
4 of 9 · 44%
Control
3:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 20%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 11%Ground 9%
This fight on UFCStats
LIsrael AdesanyaNov 2018KO R11:34 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 14 · 21%
Total strikes
9 of 23 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 7 · 0%
Control
1:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:51
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 33%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJacare SouzaJan 2018KO R10:00 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 34 · 24%
Total strikes
8 of 34 · 24%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:50
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 63%Body 25%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WLyoto MachidaOct 2017KO R10:03 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 24 · 42%
Total strikes
10 of 24 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:30
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 80%Body 0%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 0%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
WDaniel KellyJun 2017KO R10:02 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 17 · 47%
Total strikes
8 of 17 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:16
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 75%Body 0%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 0%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
LAnderson SilvaFeb 2017U-DEC3:48 ctrl54 str2 td
Significant strikes
54 of 101 · 53%
Total strikes
118 of 184 · 64%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
3:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 9%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 35%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
LRobert WhittakerNov 2016KO R11:12 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 42 · 45%
Total strikes
25 of 48 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
1:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:07
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 95%Body 5%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 53%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WUriah HallSep 2016KO R11:02 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 7 · 57%
Total strikes
15 of 18 · 83%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
1:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:41
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 75%Body 25%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 75%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRoan CarneiroFeb 2016KO R10:42 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 51 · 45%
Total strikes
27 of 57 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:38
Punches to Head From Guard
Target
Head 96%Body 0%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 9%Clinch 0%Ground 91%
This fight on UFCStats
WSam AlveyAug 2015KO R11:31 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 45 · 60%
Total strikes
53 of 71 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:19
Punches to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 96%Body 4%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 26%Clinch 70%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats
WEd HermanJan 2015KO R10:05 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 18 · 61%
Total strikes
11 of 18 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:36
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 91%Body 0%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 0%Ground 64%
This fight on UFCStats
WLorenz LarkinAug 2014U-DEC10:42 ctrl12 str4 td
Significant strikes
12 of 30 · 40%
Total strikes
98 of 125 · 78%
Takedowns
4 of 12 · 33%
Control
10:42
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 17%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 33%Clinch 17%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
LYoel RomeroJan 2014KO R32:58 ctrl38 str3 td
Significant strikes
38 of 94 · 40%
Total strikes
56 of 112 · 50%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
2:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:23
Elbows to Body On Ground
Target
Head 53%Body 3%Legs 45%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 3%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WBrian HoustonNov 2013SUB R10:30 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 2 · 50%
Total strikes
1 of 2 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:30
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 0:48
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WChris LebenDec 2012U-DEC7:22 ctrl41 str4 td
Significant strikes
41 of 130 · 32%
Total strikes
76 of 174 · 44%
Takedowns
4 of 13 · 31%
Control
7:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 73%Body 10%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 5%Ground 24%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.