Deron Winn

7-3-0

37y·5' 6"·70" reach·Orthodox

4:17

Control / 15m

time on top

-1.66

Striking diff.

landed minus absorbed

Finish rate

wins inside the distance

Power

knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss June 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

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The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in October 2019, 90 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Jun 2022

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Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 5 recorded bouts, 303 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target

Head 73%Body 20%Legs 7%

Position

Distance 80%Clinch 17%Ground 4%

And how often each lands

Head38%

Body82%

Legs100%

Distance41%

Clinch65%

Ground92%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

2Wins2 DEC

3Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

Spicely

54%

Stewart

Meerschaert

63%

Arroyo

Hawes

As the fight goes on

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts

R13.88100%5

R25.00129%5

R34.88126%4

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.55

Strikes absorbed / min6.21

Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%

Striking defenceof what comes back, missed46%

Takedowns / 15 min4.28

Takedown accuracyof attempts that land52%

Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed40%

Sub attempts / 15 min0

Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together10.76

Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 5 bouts13.3m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

40.3%

Landed at range

556 thrown over 4 bouts

—

Expected

against these opponents

—

Gap

below the cutoffs

—

Coverage

from real records

It takes 5 bouts before this comparison says anything. There are 4 here, so it's only showing what they actually landed.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LPhil HawesJun 2022KO R20:00 ctrl32 str0 td

Significant strikes

32 of 111 · 29%

Total strikes

34 of 114 · 30%

Takedowns

0 of 0

Control

0:00

Knockdowns

Sub attempts

Reversals

Ended

KO / TKO, R2 4:25

Elbows to Head At Distance

Target

Head 75%Body 13%Legs 13%

Position

Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%

This fight on UFCStats

WAntonio ArroyoDec 2020U-DEC9:29 ctrl20 str12 td

Significant strikes

20 of 38 · 53%

Total strikes

64 of 89 · 72%

Takedowns

12 of 16 · 75%

Control

9:29

Knockdowns

Sub attempts

Reversals

Ended

Unanimous decision, 3 rounds

Target

Head 50%Body 25%Legs 25%

Position

Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%

This fight on UFCStats

LGerald MeerschaertMar 2020SUB R30:11 ctrl53 str1 td

Significant strikes

53 of 111 · 48%

Total strikes

53 of 111 · 48%

Takedowns

1 of 2 · 50%

Control

0:11

Knockdowns

Sub attempts

Reversals

Ended

Submission, R3 2:13

Rear Naked Choke

Target

Head 70%Body 21%Legs 9%

Position

Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%

This fight on UFCStats

LDarren StewartOct 2019S-DEC8:04 ctrl29 str6 td

Significant strikes

29 of 53 · 55%

Total strikes

66 of 98 · 67%

Takedowns

6 of 15 · 40%

Control

8:04

Knockdowns

Sub attempts

Reversals

Ended

Split decision, 3 rounds

Target

Head 86%Body 3%Legs 10%

Position

Distance 38%Clinch 24%Ground 38%

This fight on UFCStats

WEric SpicelyJun 2019U-DEC1:18 ctrl169 str0 td

Significant strikes

169 of 367 · 46%

Total strikes

171 of 369 · 46%

Takedowns

0 of 3 · 0%

Control

1:18

Knockdowns

Sub attempts

Reversals

Ended

Unanimous decision, 3 rounds

Target

Head 74%Body 23%Legs 3%

Position

Distance 81%Clinch 19%Ground 0%

This fight on UFCStats