Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2019. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Oct 2021
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Devonte Smith
11-4-0
33y·5' 9"·76" reach·Orthodox
1:17
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.64
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 163 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 58%Body 23%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 72%Clinch 18%Ground 10%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body74%
Legs91%
Distance46%
Clinch79%
Ground70%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins4 KO
3Losses2 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
7%
Erosa
1%
Ma
0%
Worthy
36%
Jaynes
0%
Mullarkey
2%
Klein
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.64100%6
R22.7860%3
R34.00—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.55
Strikes absorbed / min3.91
Striking accuracyof everything thrown53%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed49%
Takedowns / 15 min0.35
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land25%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed85%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.46
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts6.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
45.7%
Landed at range
210 thrown over 5 bouts
46.0%
Expected
against these opponents
−0.3pp
Gap
below expected
68.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LLudovit KleinMar 2022S-DEC0:14 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 98 · 54%
Total strikes
80 of 125 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 36%Body 47%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 58%Clinch 42%Ground 0%
LJamie MullarkeyOct 2021KO R20:00 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 64 · 45%
Total strikes
32 of 67 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:51
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 83%Body 7%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 10%Ground 0%
WJustin JaynesFeb 2021DOC R23:08 ctrl34 str1 td
Significant strikes
34 of 65 · 52%
Total strikes
46 of 78 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R2 3:38
Eye InjuryTarget
Head 74%Body 15%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 15%Ground 24%
LKhama WorthyAug 2019KO R10:00 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 27 · 56%
Total strikes
15 of 27 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:15
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 20%Body 13%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WDong Hyun MaFeb 2019KO R10:02 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 43 · 44%
Total strikes
19 of 43 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:53
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 74%Body 5%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 0%Ground 21%
WJulian ErosaNov 2018KO R10:03 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 19 · 68%
Total strikes
13 of 19 · 68%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:46
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 69%Body 15%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 0%Ground 31%