Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss May 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Aug 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Dominick Cruz
24-4-0
41y·5' 8"·68" reach·Orthodox
1:51
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.30
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
14%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in June 2016, 125 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Aug 2022
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 780 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 66%Body 18%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 7%Ground 4%
And how often each lands
Head31%
Body62%
Legs86%
Distance36%
Clinch80%
Ground72%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
14Wins2 KO · 12 DEC
4Losses2 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
9%
Faber
51%
Johnson
38%
Mizugaki
2%
Dillashaw
14%
Faber
0%
Garbrandt
0%
Cejudo
14%
Kenney
1%
Munhoz
6%
Vera
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.24100%10
R24.84114%9
R34.58108%8
R43.8190%6
R53.2075%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.91
Strikes absorbed / min2.61
Striking accuracyof everything thrown33%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed70%
Takedowns / 15 min2.82
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land42%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.52
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts18.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
35.7%
Landed at range
1,940 thrown over 10 bouts
34.2%
Expected
against these opponents
+1.5pp
Gap
above expected
86.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LMarlon VeraAug 2022KO R41:05 ctrl92 str2 td
Significant strikes
92 of 249 · 37%
Total strikes
100 of 259 · 39%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
1:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 2:17
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 59%Body 17%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 1%Ground 2%
WPedro MunhozDec 2021U-DEC0:06 ctrl103 str1 td
Significant strikes
103 of 274 · 38%
Total strikes
105 of 276 · 38%
Takedowns
1 of 9 · 11%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 13%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 2%Ground 1%
WCasey KenneyMar 2021S-DEC2:07 ctrl89 str2 td
Significant strikes
89 of 202 · 44%
Total strikes
115 of 229 · 50%
Takedowns
2 of 9 · 22%
Control
2:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 27%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
LHenry CejudoMay 2020KO R20:00 ctrl33 str0 td
Significant strikes
33 of 81 · 41%
Total strikes
33 of 81 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:58
Knee to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 45%Body 24%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
LCody GarbrandtDec 2016U-DEC0:01 ctrl88 str0 td
Significant strikes
88 of 291 · 30%
Total strikes
95 of 298 · 32%
Takedowns
0 of 7 · 0%
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 10%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WUrijah FaberJun 2016U-DEC3:24 ctrl87 str3 td
Significant strikes
87 of 261 · 33%
Total strikes
99 of 275 · 36%
Takedowns
3 of 7 · 43%
Control
3:24
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 9%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 7%Ground 5%
WTJ DillashawJan 2016S-DEC0:33 ctrl112 str4 td
Significant strikes
112 of 302 · 37%
Total strikes
122 of 312 · 39%
Takedowns
4 of 11 · 36%
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 87%Body 8%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
WTakeya MizugakiSep 2014KO R10:23 ctrl26 str2 td
Significant strikes
26 of 35 · 74%
Total strikes
26 of 35 · 74%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:01
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 15%Clinch 0%Ground 85%
WDemetrious JohnsonOct 2011U-DEC12:41 ctrl60 str10 td
Significant strikes
60 of 120 · 50%
Total strikes
146 of 226 · 65%
Takedowns
10 of 19 · 53%
Control
12:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 45%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 42%Ground 8%
WUrijah FaberJul 2011U-DEC2:18 ctrl90 str4 td
Significant strikes
90 of 238 · 38%
Total strikes
97 of 246 · 39%
Takedowns
4 of 13 · 31%
Control
2:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 30%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%