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Drew Dober

29-15-0 (1 NC)
37y·5' 8"·70" reach·Southpaw
1:59
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.15
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
81%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss May 2023. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Mar 2025

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2014, 70 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Mar 2025

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 27 recorded bouts, 994 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 63%Body 23%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 11%Ground 9%
And how often each lands
Head33%
Body69%
Legs81%
Distance37%
Clinch65%
Ground74%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

16Wins12 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
11Losses3 KO · 4 SUB · 4 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

20%
Spencer
20%
Hein
36%
Varner
15%
Silva
0%
Escudero
35%
Holtzman
10%
Gonzalez
15%
Aubin-Mercier
36%
Burkman
3%
Camacho
52%
Tuck
11%
Dariush
7%
Reyes
9%
Haqparast
2%
Hernandez
2%
Makhachev
7%
Riddell
12%
McKinney
1%
Alves
2%
Green
0%
Frevola
20%
Glenn
7%
Moicano
4%
Silva
0%
Torres
1%
Prepolec
0%
Johnson

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.20100%27
R24.72112%17
R34.77113%11

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.48
Strikes absorbed / min4.33
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min0.61
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land16%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed58%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.81
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 27 bouts8.2m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

37.1%
Landed at range
2,128 thrown over 27 bouts
39.5%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.4pp
Gap
below expected
75.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WMichael JohnsonMar 2026KO R20:00 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 55 · 40%
Total strikes
22 of 55 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:53
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 41%Body 32%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 0%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WKyle PrepolecOct 2025KO R30:04 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 161 · 52%
Total strikes
85 of 163 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:16
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 55%Body 22%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LManuel TorresMar 2025KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 9 · 33%
Total strikes
3 of 9 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:45
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJean SilvaJul 2024DOC R30:30 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 147 · 40%
Total strikes
59 of 148 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R3 1:28
Cut to Dober's eye
Target
Head 49%Body 36%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LRenato MoicanoFeb 2024U-DEC1:02 ctrl23 str1 td
Significant strikes
23 of 59 · 39%
Total strikes
36 of 73 · 49%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 74%Body 17%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 4%Ground 13%
This fight on UFCStats
WRicky GlennOct 2023KO R10:31 ctrl30 str0 td
Significant strikes
30 of 53 · 57%
Total strikes
30 of 53 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:31
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:36
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 63%Body 23%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 67%Clinch 7%Ground 27%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatt FrevolaMay 2023KO R10:00 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 59 · 34%
Total strikes
20 of 59 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:08
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKing GreenDec 2022KO R20:09 ctrl34 str0 td
Significant strikes
34 of 121 · 28%
Total strikes
34 of 121 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:45
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 47%Body 26%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 0%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WRafael AlvesJul 2022KO R30:07 ctrl62 str0 td
Significant strikes
62 of 151 · 41%
Total strikes
62 of 151 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:30
Punch to Body At Distance
Target
Head 61%Body 32%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 0%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WTerrance McKinneyMar 2022KO R10:24 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 37 · 46%
Total strikes
31 of 52 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:24
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:17
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 82%Body 12%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 35%Clinch 12%Ground 53%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrad RiddellJun 2021U-DEC1:05 ctrl73 str1 td
Significant strikes
73 of 168 · 43%
Total strikes
78 of 173 · 45%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
1:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 25%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 3%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
LIslam MakhachevMar 2021SUB R30:12 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Total strikes
14 of 24 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 1:37
Arm Triangle From Half Guard
Target
Head 50%Body 30%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 10%Ground 30%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlexander HernandezMay 2020KO R20:11 ctrl61 str0 td
Significant strikes
61 of 145 · 42%
Total strikes
65 of 149 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:11
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:25
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 79%Body 10%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNasrat HaqparastJan 2020KO R10:06 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 26 · 50%
Total strikes
13 of 26 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:10
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 92%Body 8%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 15%Clinch 0%Ground 85%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarco Polo ReyesJun 2019KO R10:05 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 27 · 59%
Total strikes
17 of 29 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:07
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 94%Body 0%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 6%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
LBeneil DariushMar 2019SUB R21:03 ctrl31 str0 td
Significant strikes
31 of 58 · 53%
Total strikes
38 of 66 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:41
Armbar On Ground
Target
Head 55%Body 29%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 45%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJon TuckAug 2018U-DEC7:48 ctrl60 str2 td
Significant strikes
60 of 136 · 44%
Total strikes
122 of 208 · 59%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
7:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 15%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 5%Ground 35%
This fight on UFCStats
WFrank CamachoJan 2018U-DEC0:26 ctrl145 str0 td
Significant strikes
145 of 322 · 45%
Total strikes
161 of 338 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 23%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 10%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WJoshua BurkmanJul 2017KO R11:07 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 29 · 52%
Total strikes
20 of 34 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:07
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:04
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 33%Body 27%Legs 40%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 33%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LOlivier Aubin-MercierDec 2016SUB R21:13 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 71 · 34%
Total strikes
33 of 80 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:13
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:57
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 38%Body 54%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 0%Ground 38%
This fight on UFCStats
WJason GonzalezSep 2016KO R10:10 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 41 · 49%
Total strikes
23 of 45 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:10
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:45
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 70%Body 10%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 20%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WScott HoltzmanJan 2016U-DEC5:13 ctrl36 str5 td
Significant strikes
36 of 88 · 41%
Total strikes
63 of 119 · 53%
Takedowns
5 of 14 · 36%
Control
5:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 11%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 28%Ground 11%
This fight on UFCStats
LEfrain EscuderoJun 2015SUB R10:00 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 3 · 0%
Total strikes
0 of 3 · 0%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 0:54
Guillotine Choke On Ground
This fight on UFCStats
NCLeandro SilvaMar 2015NC R21:10 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 72 · 31%
Total strikes
26 of 77 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R2 2:45
Early Stoppage
Target
Head 64%Body 9%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 32%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJamie VarnerDec 2014SUB R10:40 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 12 · 42%
Total strikes
7 of 14 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:40
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:52
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 20%Ground 20%
This fight on UFCStats
LNick HeinMay 2014U-DEC2:59 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 127 · 39%
Total strikes
97 of 178 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
2:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 18%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 14%Ground 10%
This fight on UFCStats
LSean SpencerNov 2013U-DEC3:04 ctrl61 str0 td
Significant strikes
61 of 226 · 27%
Total strikes
67 of 236 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 11 · 0%
Control
3:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 21%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 30%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.