Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Apr 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Dwight Grant
11-6-0
41y·6' 1"·76" reach·Switch
0:22
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.63
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 8 recorded bouts, 287 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 64%Body 15%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 5%Ground 10%
And how often each lands
Head27%
Body67%
Legs82%
Distance32%
Clinch83%
Ground50%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 2 DEC
5Losses2 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Ottow
2%
Jr.
0%
Jouban
37%
Rodriguez
3%
Sekulic
1%
Trinaldo
4%
Khandozhko
0%
Stoltzfus
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.82100%8
R22.6369%6
R32.6870%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.29
Strikes absorbed / min2.66
Striking accuracyof everything thrown36%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed60%
Takedowns / 15 min0.61
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land100%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together5.95
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 8 bouts11.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
32.4%
Landed at range
748 thrown over 8 bouts
38.4%
Expected
against these opponents
−6.1pp
Gap
below expected
76.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LDustin StoltzfusJul 2022U-DEC0:00 ctrl52 str0 td
Significant strikes
52 of 100 · 52%
Total strikes
54 of 102 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 13%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
LSergey KhandozhkoApr 2022KO R20:20 ctrl42 str1 td
Significant strikes
42 of 110 · 38%
Total strikes
47 of 115 · 41%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:20
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:15
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 83%Body 12%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 5%Ground 5%
LFrancisco TrinaldoOct 2021S-DEC0:11 ctrl31 str1 td
Significant strikes
31 of 133 · 23%
Total strikes
41 of 145 · 28%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:11
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 23%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 3%Ground 6%
WStefan SekulicApr 2021S-DEC0:25 ctrl49 str1 td
Significant strikes
49 of 156 · 31%
Total strikes
52 of 160 · 33%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 20%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 4%Ground 4%
LDaniel RodriguezAug 2020KO R10:53 ctrl30 str0 td
Significant strikes
30 of 68 · 44%
Total strikes
31 of 72 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:53
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:24
Punches to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 83%Body 7%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 0%Ground 57%
WAlan JoubanApr 2019S-DEC0:00 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 122 · 31%
Total strikes
39 of 123 · 32%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 34%Body 11%Legs 55%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
WCarlo Pedersoli Jr.Feb 2019KO R10:05 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 53 · 38%
Total strikes
22 of 55 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:59
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 70%Body 10%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 10%Ground 30%
LZak OttowDec 2018S-DEC0:19 ctrl25 str1 td
Significant strikes
25 of 84 · 30%
Total strikes
33 of 93 · 35%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 28%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 20%Ground 4%