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Ed Herman

27-16-0 (1 NC)
45y·6' 1"·77" reach·Orthodox
4:06
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.40
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
69%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss January 2015. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Apr 2023

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in June 2011, 91 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Apr 2023

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 26 recorded bouts, 851 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 63%Body 25%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 28%Ground 22%
And how often each lands
Head39%
Body82%
Legs85%
Distance37%
Clinch71%
Ground70%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

13Wins4 KO · 5 SUB · 4 DEC
13Losses4 KO · 3 SUB · 6 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

65%
Grove
48%
MacDonald
92%
Price
86%
Smith
62%
Doerksen
51%
Maia
32%
Belcher
80%
Loiseau
0%
Simpson
6%
Credeur
5%
Noke
21%
Starks
26%
Shields
22%
Smith
8%
Leites
20%
Natal
0%
Brunson
4%
Boetsch
7%
Krylov
18%
Dollaway
1%
Villante
2%
Cummins
15%
Ibragimov
33%
Rodriguez
0%
Menifield
0%
Cummings

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.48100%26
R23.4298%20
R32.8883%14

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.31
Strikes absorbed / min3.71
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed42%
Takedowns / 15 min1.96
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land47%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed59%
Sub attempts / 15 min1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.02
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 26 bouts9.9m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

37.3%
Landed at range
1,134 thrown over 26 bouts
39.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.0pp
Gap
below expected
72.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LZak CummingsApr 2023KO R30:00 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 117 · 46%
Total strikes
71 of 141 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:13
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 63%Body 9%Legs 28%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 7%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlonzo MenifieldAug 2021U-DEC0:01 ctrl41 str0 td
Significant strikes
41 of 126 · 33%
Total strikes
42 of 127 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 22%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMike RodriguezSep 2020SUB R34:09 ctrl40 str2 td
Significant strikes
40 of 73 · 55%
Total strikes
51 of 84 · 61%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
4:09
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R3 2:41
Kimura From Bottom Half Guard
Target
Head 35%Body 40%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 48%Clinch 53%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKhadis IbragimovNov 2019U-DEC2:19 ctrl81 str0 td
Significant strikes
81 of 140 · 58%
Total strikes
121 of 183 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
2:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 21%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 44%Clinch 53%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WPatrick CumminsMay 2019KO R10:04 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 35 · 31%
Total strikes
14 of 38 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:39
Knee to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 9%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats
LGian VillanteOct 2018S-DEC0:06 ctrl84 str0 td
Significant strikes
84 of 223 · 38%
Total strikes
85 of 224 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 75%Body 8%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LCB DollawayJul 2017U-DEC2:45 ctrl24 str1 td
Significant strikes
24 of 41 · 59%
Total strikes
48 of 68 · 71%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
2:45
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 88%Body 13%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 54%Clinch 4%Ground 42%
This fight on UFCStats
LNikita KrylovJul 2016KO R20:25 ctrl26 str1 td
Significant strikes
26 of 55 · 47%
Total strikes
36 of 65 · 55%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:25
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:40
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 77%Body 15%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 23%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WTim BoetschJan 2016KO R20:16 ctrl47 str0 td
Significant strikes
47 of 82 · 57%
Total strikes
56 of 91 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:16
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:39
Knee to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 66%Body 15%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 34%Ground 6%
This fight on UFCStats
LDerek BrunsonJan 2015KO R10:00 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 4 · 0%
Total strikes
0 of 4 · 0%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:36
Punch to Head At Distance
This fight on UFCStats
WRafael NatalMay 2014U-DEC2:57 ctrl51 str1 td
Significant strikes
51 of 87 · 59%
Total strikes
78 of 117 · 67%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
2:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 18%Legs 39%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 41%Ground 12%
This fight on UFCStats
LThales LeitesNov 2013U-DEC1:15 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 37 · 38%
Total strikes
51 of 76 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:15
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 14%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 50%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
WTrevor SmithJul 2013S-DEC3:17 ctrl73 str2 td
Significant strikes
73 of 129 · 57%
Total strikes
127 of 187 · 68%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
3:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 37%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 44%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
NCJake ShieldsAug 2012NC R33:57 ctrl21 str1 td
Significant strikes
21 of 50 · 42%
Total strikes
71 of 102 · 70%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R3 5:00
Failed Drug Test by Shields Hale Hilsabeck 28 - 29. Dave Hagen 27 - 30. Tony Weeks 27 - 30.
Target
Head 38%Body 43%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 14%Clinch 71%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
WClifford StarksFeb 2012SUB R21:23 ctrl28 str2 td
Significant strikes
28 of 57 · 49%
Total strikes
53 of 88 · 60%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
1:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:43
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 36%Body 50%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 46%Clinch 54%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WKyle NokeAug 2011SUB R10:12 ctrl2 str1 td
Significant strikes
2 of 6 · 33%
Total strikes
4 of 8 · 50%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:15
Heel Hook On Ground
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 0%Ground 50%
This fight on UFCStats
WTim CredeurJun 2011KO R10:03 ctrl11 str0 td
Significant strikes
11 of 19 · 58%
Total strikes
11 of 19 · 58%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:48
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 9%Ground 36%
This fight on UFCStats
LAaron SimpsonAug 2009KO R20:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 32 · 22%
Total strikes
14 of 39 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:17
to Knee Injury
Target
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 43%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
WDavid LoiseauApr 2009U-DEC11:56 ctrl71 str5 td
Significant strikes
71 of 84 · 85%
Total strikes
189 of 210 · 90%
Takedowns
5 of 9 · 56%
Control
11:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 35%Body 65%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 25%Ground 75%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlan BelcherSep 2008S-DEC4:47 ctrl43 str5 td
Significant strikes
43 of 130 · 33%
Total strikes
86 of 175 · 49%
Takedowns
5 of 12 · 42%
Control
4:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 21%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 21%Ground 23%
This fight on UFCStats
LDemian MaiaApr 2008SUB R23:47 ctrl15 str1 td
Significant strikes
15 of 32 · 47%
Total strikes
44 of 62 · 71%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
3:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R2 2:27
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard Technical Submission
Target
Head 73%Body 20%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 27%Ground 73%
This fight on UFCStats
WJoe DoerksenNov 2007KO R36:33 ctrl43 str2 td
Significant strikes
43 of 74 · 58%
Total strikes
89 of 122 · 73%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
6:33
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:39
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 72%Body 28%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 14%Clinch 21%Ground 65%
This fight on UFCStats
WScott SmithJun 2007SUB R26:22 ctrl24 str3 td
Significant strikes
24 of 43 · 56%
Total strikes
53 of 78 · 68%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
6:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:25
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 4%Clinch 17%Ground 79%
This fight on UFCStats
WChris PriceJan 2007SUB R12:43 ctrl5 str1 td
Significant strikes
5 of 9 · 56%
Total strikes
13 of 22 · 59%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
2:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:58
Armbar From Back Control
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 0%Clinch 20%Ground 80%
This fight on UFCStats
LJason MacDonaldOct 2006SUB R11:18 ctrl2 str1 td
Significant strikes
2 of 2 · 100%
Total strikes
5 of 5 · 100%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 2:43
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKendall GroveJun 2006U-DEC9:43 ctrl33 str5 td
Significant strikes
33 of 57 · 58%
Total strikes
68 of 94 · 72%
Takedowns
5 of 10 · 50%
Control
9:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 39%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 9%Clinch 6%Ground 85%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.