Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
This fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStatsThis fight on UFCStats
Elves Brener
16-6-0
28y·5' 10"·72" reach·Orthodox
1:13
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.10
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in July 2023, 64 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Aug 2024
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 361 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 57%Body 19%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 3%Ground 5%
And how often each lands
Head38%
Body64%
Legs84%
Distance46%
Clinch61%
Ground68%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
3Wins2 KO · 1 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Tukhugov
21%
Kutateladze
1%
Kruschewsky
19%
Orolbai
3%
Alvarez
0%
Ribovics
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.79100%6
R25.48144%5
R35.21137%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.76
Strikes absorbed / min5.86
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min0.99
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land16%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed76%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together10.62
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts12.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
46.3%
Landed at range
684 thrown over 5 bouts
41.4%
Expected
against these opponents
+5.0pp
Gap
above expected
81.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LEsteban RibovicsAug 2025U-DEC0:00 ctrl118 str0 td
Significant strikes
118 of 250 · 47%
Total strikes
123 of 256 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 9 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 75%Body 13%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LJoel AlvarezAug 2024KO R30:22 ctrl45 str0 td
Significant strikes
45 of 97 · 46%
Total strikes
45 of 98 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:36
Knees to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 38%Body 16%Legs 47%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LMyktybek OrolbaiMay 2024U-DEC2:55 ctrl48 str3 td
Significant strikes
48 of 91 · 53%
Total strikes
79 of 125 · 63%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
2:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 15%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 4%Ground 23%
WKaynan KruschewskyNov 2023KO R10:03 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 33 · 48%
Total strikes
16 of 33 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:01
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 38%Body 13%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WGuram KutateladzeJul 2023KO R32:48 ctrl65 str2 td
Significant strikes
65 of 132 · 49%
Total strikes
93 of 165 · 56%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
2:48
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:17
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 65%Body 23%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 9%Ground 9%
WZubaira TukhugovFeb 2023S-DEC0:00 ctrl69 str0 td
Significant strikes
69 of 157 · 44%
Total strikes
82 of 170 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 33%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%