Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss May 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Felipe Colares
10-4-0
32y·5' 8"·69" reach·Orthodox
3:59
Control / 15m
time on top
-2.48
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
0%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2021, 100 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again May 2022
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 191 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 61%Body 32%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 10%Ground 13%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body69%
Legs67%
Distance42%
Clinch63%
Ground63%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins2 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
28%
Freitas
44%
Pilarte
9%
Jackson
19%
Sanders
27%
Gutierrez
33%
Hooper
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.07100%6
R22.23108%6
R32.21107%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.17
Strikes absorbed / min4.65
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed36%
Takedowns / 15 min1.88
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land24%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed43%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.82
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts14.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.8%
Landed at range
352 thrown over 6 bouts
40.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+1.6pp
Gap
above expected
72.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LChase HooperMay 2022KO R34:14 ctrl21 str2 td
Significant strikes
21 of 23 · 91%
Total strikes
43 of 46 · 93%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
4:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
3
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:00
Punches to Head From Back ControlTarget
Head 67%Body 19%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 43%Clinch 5%Ground 52%
LChris GutierrezOct 2021S-DEC3:59 ctrl41 str1 td
Significant strikes
41 of 147 · 28%
Total strikes
70 of 178 · 39%
Takedowns
1 of 7 · 14%
Control
3:59
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 37%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WLuke SandersMay 2021U-DEC2:54 ctrl78 str2 td
Significant strikes
78 of 131 · 60%
Total strikes
104 of 165 · 63%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
2:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 33%Legs 1%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 4%Ground 6%
LMontel JacksonJan 2020U-DEC1:22 ctrl7 str1 td
Significant strikes
7 of 28 · 25%
Total strikes
8 of 31 · 26%
Takedowns
1 of 8 · 13%
Control
1:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 29%Body 57%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
WDomingo PilarteJul 2019S-DEC6:37 ctrl23 str2 td
Significant strikes
23 of 42 · 55%
Total strikes
92 of 132 · 70%
Takedowns
2 of 8 · 25%
Control
6:37
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 26%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 39%Clinch 30%Ground 30%
LGeraldo de FreitasFeb 2019U-DEC4:14 ctrl21 str3 td
Significant strikes
21 of 51 · 41%
Total strikes
28 of 60 · 47%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
4:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 29%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 38%Ground 5%