Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Aug 2024
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Herbert Burns
11-6-0
38y·5' 9"·73" reach·Orthodox
3:21
Control / 15m
time on top
-3.31
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 71 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 54%Body 34%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 17%Ground 15%
And how often each lands
Head26%
Body62%
Legs69%
Distance29%
Clinch80%
Ground61%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
3Wins1 KO · 2 SUB
4Losses4 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
58%
Landwehr
48%
Dunham
28%
Pineda
8%
Algeo
18%
Arce
18%
Jenkins
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.17100%6
R21.1955%4
R33.75—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min1.86
Strikes absorbed / min5.17
Striking accuracyof everything thrown36%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed41%
Takedowns / 15 min2.94
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land34%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.8
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.03
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts6.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
28.2%
Landed at range
156 thrown over 5 bouts
35.8%
Expected
against these opponents
−7.6pp
Gap
below expected
79.7%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LJack JenkinsAug 2024KO R31:54 ctrl24 str2 td
Significant strikes
24 of 79 · 30%
Total strikes
45 of 101 · 45%
Takedowns
2 of 9 · 22%
Control
1:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:48
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 46%Body 29%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
LJulio ArceMar 2024KO R21:16 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 57 · 26%
Total strikes
20 of 63 · 32%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
1:16
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:00
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 33%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
LBill AlgeoJul 2022KO R20:32 ctrl10 str1 td
Significant strikes
10 of 12 · 83%
Total strikes
18 of 25 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:50
to Knee Injury to BurnsTarget
Head 60%Body 40%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 10%Clinch 30%Ground 60%
LDaniel PinedaAug 2020KO R22:39 ctrl10 str3 td
Significant strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Total strikes
35 of 48 · 73%
Takedowns
3 of 4 · 75%
Control
2:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:37
Elbows to Head From CrucifixTarget
Head 60%Body 20%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 50%Clinch 10%Ground 40%
WEvan DunhamJun 2020SUB R10:38 ctrl5 str1 td
Significant strikes
5 of 10 · 50%
Total strikes
8 of 13 · 62%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:38
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 1:20
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 80%Body 20%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 0%Ground 20%
WNate LandwehrJan 2020KO R11:34 ctrl7 str1 td
Significant strikes
7 of 17 · 41%
Total strikes
7 of 17 · 41%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:34
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:43
Knee to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 29%Body 71%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 43%Ground 0%