Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss June 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Ikram Aliskerov
18-2-0
33y·6' 0"·76" reach·Southpaw
5:42
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.55
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
67%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 233 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 65%Body 25%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 2%Ground 16%
And how often each lands
Head53%
Body81%
Legs83%
Distance58%
Clinch63%
Ground83%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
6Wins3 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
1Losses1 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Hawes
0%
Alves
0%
Whittaker
11%
Muniz
41%
Park
59%
Ferreira
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R16.90100%6
R25.50—2
R33.30—2
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.56
Strikes absorbed / min4.01
Striking accuracyof everything thrown60%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed45%
Takedowns / 15 min3.82
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land68%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed100%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.57
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts6.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
57.6%
Landed at range
330 thrown over 6 bouts
44.1%
Expected
against these opponents
+13.4pp
Gap
above expected
90.0%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WBrunno FerreiraJun 2026U-DEC8:53 ctrl47 str5 td
Significant strikes
47 of 98 · 48%
Total strikes
114 of 179 · 64%
Takedowns
5 of 6 · 83%
Control
8:53
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 19%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 0%Ground 23%
WJunYong ParkOct 2025U-DEC6:07 ctrl91 str5 td
Significant strikes
91 of 134 · 68%
Total strikes
126 of 174 · 72%
Takedowns
5 of 7 · 71%
Control
6:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 29%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 3%Ground 10%
WAndre MunizApr 2025KO R10:32 ctrl44 str0 td
Significant strikes
44 of 68 · 65%
Total strikes
55 of 80 · 69%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:32
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:54
Punches to Head From Half GuardTarget
Head 59%Body 23%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 2%Ground 41%
LRobert WhittakerJun 2024KO R10:00 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 15 · 33%
Total strikes
5 of 15 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:49
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 20%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WWarlley AlvesOct 2023KO R10:00 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 36 · 72%
Total strikes
26 of 36 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:07
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 77%Body 23%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WPhil HawesMay 2023KO R10:02 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 33 · 61%
Total strikes
20 of 33 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:10
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 65%Body 30%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%