Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss July 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Mar 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Jai Herbert
14-6-1
38y·6' 1"·77" reach·Orthodox
2:29
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.15
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.8
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 341 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 53%Body 29%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 14%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head30%
Body76%
Legs82%
Distance37%
Clinch84%
Ground71%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
4Wins2 KO · 2 DEC
5Losses2 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
29%
Trinaldo
1%
Moicano
3%
Worthy
2%
Topuria
40%
Nelson
19%
Klein
28%
Ziam
4%
Bedoya
0%
Padilla
22%
Nallo
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.74100%10
R23.03110%8
R34.15152%6
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.19
Strikes absorbed / min3.34
Striking accuracyof everything thrown41%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min0.42
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land21%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.53
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts10.7m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
36.8%
Landed at range
728 thrown over 10 bouts
42.3%
Expected
against these opponents
−5.5pp
Gap
below expected
78.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WMandel NalloApr 2026KO R10:27 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 28 · 68%
Total strikes
30 of 43 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:27
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:05
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 95%Body 0%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 37%Clinch 0%Ground 63%
LChris PadillaMar 2025S-DEC0:01 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 122 · 31%
Total strikes
59 of 143 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 26%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
WRolando BedoyaAug 2024U-DEC0:33 ctrl82 str2 td
Significant strikes
82 of 178 · 46%
Total strikes
89 of 185 · 48%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 33%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
LFares ZiamJul 2023U-DEC4:12 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 134 · 37%
Total strikes
58 of 150 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 6 · 0%
Control
4:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 14%Body 47%Legs 39%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 22%Ground 0%
DLudovit KleinMar 2023M-DEC2:54 ctrl43 str1 td
Significant strikes
43 of 90 · 48%
Total strikes
96 of 168 · 57%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
2:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 35%Body 40%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 56%Clinch 28%Ground 16%
WKyle NelsonJul 2022U-DEC5:57 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 64 · 56%
Total strikes
84 of 116 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
5:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 47%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 36%Ground 3%
LIlia TopuriaMar 2022KO R20:07 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 63 · 35%
Total strikes
50 of 94 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:07
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:07
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 91%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 5%Ground 9%
WKhama WorthyOct 2021KO R10:05 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 46 · 52%
Total strikes
25 of 47 · 53%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:47
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 88%Body 4%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 8%Ground 13%
LRenato MoicanoJun 2021SUB R20:08 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 25 · 28%
Total strikes
18 of 38 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:34
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 57%Body 0%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LFrancisco TrinaldoJul 2020KO R33:20 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 70 · 30%
Total strikes
37 of 90 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
3:20
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:30
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 71%Body 19%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 76%Clinch 24%Ground 0%