Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss December 2014. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Sep 2022
Read the researchThe Record
Back to the card
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Jake Collier
13-10-0
37y·6' 3"·78" reach·Orthodox
2:17
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.72
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
40%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.3
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 14 recorded bouts, 862 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 67%Body 20%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 11%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head36%
Body75%
Legs86%
Distance42%
Clinch64%
Ground65%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
9Losses4 KO · 5 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
62%
Miranda
2%
Abreu
26%
Yang
43%
Uda
15%
Clark
8%
Fortuna
0%
Aspinall
0%
Villante
0%
Felipe
46%
Sherman
24%
Arlovski
19%
Barnett
30%
Buday
6%
Usman
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R16.22100%14
R25.4588%11
R35.5589%8
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.8
Strikes absorbed / min5.08
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min0.71
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed67%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.6
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together10.88
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 14 bouts10.6m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.1%
Landed at range
1,755 thrown over 14 bouts
41.6%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.5pp
Gap
above expected
76.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LMohammed UsmanSep 2023U-DEC0:53 ctrl87 str0 td
Significant strikes
87 of 183 · 48%
Total strikes
100 of 198 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:53
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 25%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
LMartin BudayApr 2023U-DEC4:31 ctrl94 str0 td
Significant strikes
94 of 207 · 45%
Total strikes
107 of 226 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
4:31
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 67%Body 23%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 16%Ground 2%
LChris BarnettSep 2022KO R21:26 ctrl51 str1 td
Significant strikes
51 of 98 · 52%
Total strikes
57 of 107 · 53%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:26
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:24
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 78%Body 20%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 25%Ground 20%
LAndrei ArlovskiApr 2022S-DEC3:38 ctrl93 str2 td
Significant strikes
93 of 188 · 49%
Total strikes
132 of 231 · 57%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
3:38
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 8%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
WChase ShermanJan 2022SUB R11:07 ctrl20 str1 td
Significant strikes
20 of 49 · 41%
Total strikes
20 of 50 · 40%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:26
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 0%Ground 40%
LCarlos FelipeJun 2021S-DEC0:00 ctrl130 str0 td
Significant strikes
130 of 281 · 46%
Total strikes
130 of 281 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 15%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
WGian VillanteDec 2020U-DEC0:02 ctrl123 str0 td
Significant strikes
123 of 272 · 45%
Total strikes
126 of 277 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 15%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
LTom AspinallJul 2020KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 9 · 33%
Total strikes
3 of 9 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:45
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 33%Body 0%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WMarcel FortunaNov 2017U-DEC1:11 ctrl94 str0 td
Significant strikes
94 of 247 · 38%
Total strikes
124 of 279 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:11
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
2
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 20%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 2%Ground 4%
LDevin ClarkApr 2017U-DEC2:12 ctrl36 str0 td
Significant strikes
36 of 72 · 50%
Total strikes
52 of 91 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
2:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 31%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 42%Clinch 56%Ground 3%
WAlberto UdaMay 2016KO R22:37 ctrl27 str1 td
Significant strikes
27 of 54 · 50%
Total strikes
34 of 61 · 56%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
2:37
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:06
Spinning Back Kick BodyTarget
Head 78%Body 22%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 44%Clinch 37%Ground 19%
LDongi YangNov 2015KO R21:46 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 41 · 54%
Total strikes
29 of 48 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:46
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:50
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 36%Body 41%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WRicardo AbreuJun 2015S-DEC0:14 ctrl67 str0 td
Significant strikes
67 of 211 · 32%
Total strikes
84 of 232 · 36%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 54%Body 27%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
LVitor MirandaDec 2014KO R13:04 ctrl15 str2 td
Significant strikes
15 of 35 · 43%
Total strikes
22 of 44 · 50%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
3:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:59
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 73%Body 27%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%