Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss January 2015. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jun 2024
Read the researchThe Record
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Jared Cannonier
18-10-0
42y·5' 11"·77" reach·Switch
1:52
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.11
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
64%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 21 recorded bouts, 1245 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 63%Body 20%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 12%Ground 7%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body74%
Legs81%
Distance45%
Clinch78%
Ground81%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
11Wins7 KO · 4 DEC
10Losses3 KO · 7 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Jordan
3%
Asker
21%
Cutelaba
1%
Teixeira
5%
Roehrick
2%
Blachowicz
0%
Reyes
12%
Branch
3%
Silva
7%
Hermansson
3%
Whittaker
0%
Gastelum
1%
Brunson
17%
Adesanya
0%
Strickland
12%
Vettori
38%
Imavov
0%
Borralho
14%
Rodrigues
55%
Page
41%
Duncan
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.15100%21
R25.50175%17
R33.87123%14
R44.68149%7
R55.32169%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.25
Strikes absorbed / min4.36
Striking accuracyof everything thrown49%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed55%
Takedowns / 15 min0.77
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land45%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed64%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.61
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 21 bouts13.9m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
45.3%
Landed at range
2,223 thrown over 21 bouts
38.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+6.8pp
Gap
above expected
85.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LChristian Leroy DuncanJul 2026U-DEC6:12 ctrl15 str5 td
Significant strikes
15 of 46 · 33%
Total strikes
36 of 69 · 52%
Takedowns
5 of 8 · 63%
Control
6:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 47%Body 40%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 40%Clinch 53%Ground 7%
LMichael PageAug 2025U-DEC8:14 ctrl20 str2 td
Significant strikes
20 of 57 · 35%
Total strikes
46 of 88 · 52%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
8:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 20%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 55%Clinch 15%Ground 30%
WGregory RodriguesFeb 2025KO R42:09 ctrl98 str1 td
Significant strikes
98 of 201 · 49%
Total strikes
109 of 215 · 51%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
2:09
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 0:21
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 20%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 20%Ground 9%
LCaio BorralhoAug 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 254 · 33%
Total strikes
83 of 254 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 69%Body 13%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
LNassourdine ImavovJun 2024KO R46:18 ctrl64 str1 td
Significant strikes
64 of 109 · 59%
Total strikes
102 of 152 · 67%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
6:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 1:34
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 66%Body 14%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
WMarvin VettoriJun 2023U-DEC3:07 ctrl241 str4 td
Significant strikes
241 of 411 · 59%
Total strikes
257 of 428 · 60%
Takedowns
4 of 6 · 67%
Control
3:07
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 16%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 11%Ground 8%
WSean StricklandDec 2022S-DEC0:00 ctrl141 str0 td
Significant strikes
141 of 310 · 45%
Total strikes
141 of 310 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 40%Body 43%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LIsrael AdesanyaJul 2022U-DEC4:14 ctrl90 str0 td
Significant strikes
90 of 157 · 57%
Total strikes
141 of 217 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
4:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 40%Body 36%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
WDerek BrunsonFeb 2022KO R20:05 ctrl55 str1 td
Significant strikes
55 of 89 · 62%
Total strikes
61 of 96 · 64%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:29
Elbows to Head On GroundTarget
Head 76%Body 15%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 22%Ground 9%
WKelvin GastelumAug 2021U-DEC0:02 ctrl81 str0 td
Significant strikes
81 of 207 · 39%
Total strikes
91 of 218 · 42%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 25%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
LRobert WhittakerOct 2020U-DEC0:30 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 89 · 60%
Total strikes
58 of 94 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 32%Body 26%Legs 42%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
WJack HermanssonSep 2019KO R20:22 ctrl28 str0 td
Significant strikes
28 of 53 · 53%
Total strikes
29 of 54 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:27
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 75%Body 7%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 36%Clinch 4%Ground 61%
WAnderson SilvaMay 2019KO R10:09 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 31 · 55%
Total strikes
18 of 32 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:09
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:47
Kick to Leg At DistanceTarget
Head 29%Body 12%Legs 59%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
WDavid BranchNov 2018KO R20:42 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 56 · 46%
Total strikes
31 of 61 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:42
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:39
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 85%Body 8%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 19%Clinch 42%Ground 38%
LDominick ReyesMay 2018KO R10:00 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 21 · 29%
Total strikes
10 of 26 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:55
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 67%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LJan BlachowiczDec 2017U-DEC0:22 ctrl26 str0 td
Significant strikes
26 of 87 · 30%
Total strikes
41 of 103 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 4%Legs 31%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 12%
WNick RoehrickJul 2017KO R30:34 ctrl84 str1 td
Significant strikes
84 of 150 · 56%
Total strikes
86 of 152 · 57%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:08
Elbows to Head From Half GuardTarget
Head 89%Body 6%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 21%Ground 11%
LGlover TeixeiraFeb 2017U-DEC0:10 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 46 · 46%
Total strikes
40 of 66 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 90%Body 5%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 10%Ground 5%
WIon CutelabaDec 2016U-DEC3:10 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 94 · 63%
Total strikes
83 of 121 · 69%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
3:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 12%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 22%Ground 8%
WCyril AskerApr 2016KO R10:05 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 34 · 79%
Total strikes
27 of 34 · 79%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:44
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 56%Body 33%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 15%Ground 22%
LShawn JordanJan 2015KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Total strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:57
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%