Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss February 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Jul 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Jared Vanderaa
12-10-0
34y·6' 4"·80" reach·Orthodox
0:47
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.71
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 397 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 52%Body 22%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 11%Ground 2%
And how often each lands
Head31%
Body79%
Legs94%
Distance42%
Clinch69%
Ground78%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins1 KO · 1 DEC
6Losses3 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Spivac
3%
Tafa
0%
Romanov
18%
Arlovski
25%
Oleinik
0%
Sherman
1%
Acosta
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.98100%7
R24.57115%6
R37.09178%4
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.96
Strikes absorbed / min5.67
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed45%
Takedowns / 15 min0.18
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land50%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed20%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together10.63
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts11.6m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
42.1%
Landed at range
824 thrown over 7 bouts
45.5%
Expected
against these opponents
−3.4pp
Gap
below expected
72.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LWaldo Cortes AcostaOct 2022U-DEC0:13 ctrl56 str0 td
Significant strikes
56 of 138 · 41%
Total strikes
59 of 143 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 21%Body 9%Legs 70%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
LChase ShermanJul 2022KO R30:00 ctrl109 str0 td
Significant strikes
109 of 266 · 41%
Total strikes
109 of 267 · 41%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:10
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 70%Body 17%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 99%Clinch 1%Ground 0%
LAleksei OleinikApr 2022SUB R10:54 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 40 · 38%
Total strikes
23 of 49 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:54
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:39
Scarf Hold From Side ControlTarget
Head 87%Body 13%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 47%Clinch 7%Ground 47%
LAndrei ArlovskiFeb 2022S-DEC2:44 ctrl70 str0 td
Significant strikes
70 of 156 · 45%
Total strikes
102 of 190 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 43%Body 34%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 79%Clinch 21%Ground 0%
LAlexandr RomanovOct 2021KO R20:00 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 23 · 57%
Total strikes
19 of 31 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:43
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 31%Body 15%Legs 54%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 23%Ground 0%
WJustin TafaMay 2021U-DEC0:24 ctrl121 str0 td
Significant strikes
121 of 248 · 49%
Total strikes
141 of 269 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 53%Body 28%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 14%Ground 0%
LSerghei SpivacFeb 2021KO R20:00 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 24 · 54%
Total strikes
27 of 38 · 71%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:32
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 62%Body 23%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%