Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss June 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Aug 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Jason Witt
19-9-0
39y·5' 10"·70" reach·Orthodox
8:05
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.39
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
50%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 70 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 73%Body 19%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 9%Ground 29%
And how often each lands
Head40%
Body59%
Legs100%
Distance38%
Clinch55%
Ground69%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
2Wins1 SUB · 1 DEC
4Losses4 KO
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Sato
88%
Williams
0%
Semelsberger
38%
Barberena
71%
Rowe
21%
Quinlan
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R11.76100%6
R22.55145%3
R32.80—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min2.15
Strikes absorbed / min2.54
Striking accuracyof everything thrown44%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed52%
Takedowns / 15 min6.9
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land48%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed100%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.9
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together4.69
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts5.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.0%
Landed at range
105 thrown over 5 bouts
47.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−6.6pp
Gap
below expected
81.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LJosh QuinlanAug 2022KO R10:27 ctrl1 str1 td
Significant strikes
1 of 12 · 8%
Total strikes
2 of 13 · 15%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:09
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 0%Body 100%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LPhil RoweFeb 2022KO R25:11 ctrl8 str4 td
Significant strikes
8 of 22 · 36%
Total strikes
25 of 43 · 58%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
5:11
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:15
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 63%Body 25%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 0%Ground 13%
WBryan BarberenaJul 2021M-DEC5:38 ctrl35 str8 td
Significant strikes
35 of 83 · 42%
Total strikes
56 of 105 · 53%
Takedowns
8 of 18 · 44%
Control
5:38
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 23%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 17%Ground 11%
LMatthew SemelsbergerMar 2021KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 4 · 100%
Total strikes
4 of 4 · 100%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:16
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 50%Body 0%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WCole WilliamsOct 2020SUB R26:19 ctrl20 str2 td
Significant strikes
20 of 31 · 65%
Total strikes
50 of 70 · 71%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
6:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 2:09
Arm Triangle From MountTarget
Head 85%Body 5%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 0%Ground 75%
LTakashi SatoJun 2020KO R10:00 ctrl2 str0 td
Significant strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Total strikes
2 of 5 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:48
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 0%Body 50%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%