Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss February 2025. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Javid Basharat
15-2-0 (1 NC)
31y·5' 9"·69" reach·Orthodox
2:37
Control / 15m
time on top
+2.43
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
20%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in February 2025, 125 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 440 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 57%Body 28%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 7%Ground 10%
And how often each lands
Head43%
Body77%
Legs83%
Distance50%
Clinch74%
Ground92%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
5Wins1 SUB · 4 DEC
2Losses1 KO · 1 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
0%
Jones
21%
Gravely
35%
Mendonca
9%
Henry
0%
Zahabi
0%
Simon
38%
Vazquez
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R15.12100%7
R25.0699%6
R35.52108%5
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min5.18
Strikes absorbed / min2.75
Striking accuracyof everything thrown54%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed63%
Takedowns / 15 min1.83
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.93
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts12.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
49.7%
Landed at range
734 thrown over 7 bouts
41.7%
Expected
against these opponents
+8.1pp
Gap
above expected
65.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WGianni VazquezFeb 2026U-DEC5:38 ctrl59 str3 td
Significant strikes
59 of 97 · 61%
Total strikes
85 of 132 · 64%
Takedowns
3 of 8 · 38%
Control
5:38
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 22%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 2%Ground 24%
LRicky SimonFeb 2025KO R10:01 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 36 · 56%
Total strikes
21 of 38 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:58
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 60%Body 35%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LAiemann ZahabiMar 2024U-DEC0:00 ctrl67 str0 td
Significant strikes
67 of 205 · 33%
Total strikes
67 of 205 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 49%Body 40%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
NCVictor HenryOct 2023NC R20:29 ctrl30 str1 td
Significant strikes
30 of 43 · 70%
Total strikes
33 of 46 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 4 · 25%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Could not continue, R2 0:15
Low blowTarget
Head 27%Body 27%Legs 47%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
WMateus MendoncaJan 2023U-DEC5:19 ctrl95 str3 td
Significant strikes
95 of 130 · 73%
Total strikes
125 of 164 · 76%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
5:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 26%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 11%Ground 26%
WTony GravelySep 2022U-DEC3:13 ctrl80 str2 td
Significant strikes
80 of 149 · 54%
Total strikes
106 of 177 · 60%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
3:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 30%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 8%Ground 6%
WTrevin JonesMar 2022U-DEC0:00 ctrl89 str0 td
Significant strikes
89 of 164 · 54%
Total strikes
89 of 164 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 24%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 89%Clinch 11%Ground 0%