Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss October 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
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Jesse Ronson
21-12-0 (1 NC)
40y·5' 10"·70" reach·Southpaw
0:34
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.15
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
—
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.4
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 6 recorded bouts, 233 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 52%Body 24%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 6%Ground 6%
And how often each lands
Head36%
Body65%
Legs87%
Distance46%
Clinch58%
Ground79%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
0Wins—
5Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
5%
Prazeres
4%
Trinaldo
5%
Lee
13%
Dalby
0%
Garcia
0%
Silva
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.03100%6
R23.0074%5
R33.4786%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.54
Strikes absorbed / min3.39
Striking accuracyof everything thrown47%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed57%
Takedowns / 15 min0.46
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land28%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed57%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.93
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 6 bouts11.0m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
45.8%
Landed at range
443 thrown over 6 bouts
37.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+8.3pp
Gap
above expected
73.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LJoaquim SilvaOct 2022KO R20:00 ctrl39 str0 td
Significant strikes
39 of 83 · 47%
Total strikes
39 of 83 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:08
Flying Knee HeadTarget
Head 56%Body 28%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LRafa GarciaApr 2022SUB R20:02 ctrl25 str0 td
Significant strikes
25 of 61 · 41%
Total strikes
28 of 64 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:50
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 52%Body 24%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
NCNicolas DalbyJul 2020NC R10:21 ctrl30 str0 td
Significant strikes
30 of 45 · 67%
Total strikes
31 of 46 · 67%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Overturned, R1 2:48
Rear Naked Choke Failed Drug Test by RonsonTarget
Head 73%Body 3%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 70%Clinch 7%Ground 23%
LKevin LeeJul 2014S-DEC0:41 ctrl48 str1 td
Significant strikes
48 of 100 · 48%
Total strikes
51 of 105 · 49%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 56%Body 19%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
LFrancisco TrinaldoFeb 2014S-DEC0:36 ctrl53 str0 td
Significant strikes
53 of 126 · 42%
Total strikes
56 of 129 · 43%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:36
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 40%Body 34%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
LMichel PrazeresSep 2013S-DEC0:47 ctrl38 str1 td
Significant strikes
38 of 73 · 52%
Total strikes
41 of 76 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 39%Body 26%Legs 34%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 8%Ground 21%