Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss December 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Jimmy Crute
14-4-2
30y·6' 2"·74" reach·Orthodox
6:01
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.50
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
100%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 12 recorded bouts, 275 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 71%Body 14%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 15%Ground 23%
And how often each lands
Head44%
Body81%
Legs84%
Distance43%
Clinch86%
Ground64%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
7Wins3 KO · 4 SUB
4Losses2 KO · 2 SUB
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
57%
Craig
5%
Alvey
20%
Cirkunov
87%
Oleksiejczuk
21%
Bukauskas
19%
Smith
0%
Hill
53%
Menifield
17%
Menifield
26%
Bellato
49%
Prachnio
64%
Erslan
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.54100%12
R23.61102%4
R33.4999%3
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.15
Strikes absorbed / min3.65
Striking accuracyof everything thrown52%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed42%
Takedowns / 15 min4.39
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land52%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed58%
Sub attempts / 15 min2
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.8
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 12 bouts6.5m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
43.0%
Landed at range
395 thrown over 12 bouts
45.1%
Expected
against these opponents
−2.1pp
Gap
below expected
70.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
WIvan ErslanSep 2025SUB R12:08 ctrl12 str2 td
Significant strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Total strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
2:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 3:19
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 25%Body 8%Legs 67%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 0%Ground 25%
WMarcin PrachnioJul 2025SUB R12:18 ctrl5 str3 td
Significant strikes
5 of 18 · 28%
Total strikes
11 of 27 · 41%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
2:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:42
Armbar From Side ControlTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 0%Ground 20%
DRodolfo BellatoFeb 2025M-DEC3:52 ctrl106 str0 td
Significant strikes
106 of 209 · 51%
Total strikes
139 of 247 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
3:52
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 88%Body 8%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 10%Ground 17%
LAlonzo MenifieldJul 2023SUB R21:12 ctrl26 str1 td
Significant strikes
26 of 53 · 49%
Total strikes
32 of 59 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
1:12
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:55
Guillotine Choke On GroundTarget
Head 19%Body 73%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 23%Clinch 77%Ground 0%
DAlonzo MenifieldFeb 2023M-DEC7:55 ctrl31 str6 td
Significant strikes
31 of 62 · 50%
Total strikes
62 of 103 · 60%
Takedowns
6 of 12 · 50%
Control
7:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
3
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 87%Body 6%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 16%Ground 10%
LJamahal HillDec 2021KO R10:00 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 12 · 50%
Total strikes
6 of 12 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:48
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 33%Body 33%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 17%Ground 0%
LAnthony SmithApr 2021DOC R10:57 ctrl18 str3 td
Significant strikes
18 of 35 · 51%
Total strikes
34 of 57 · 60%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
0:57
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R1 5:00
Leg InjuryTarget
Head 39%Body 11%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 0%Ground 6%
WModestas BukauskasOct 2020KO R10:25 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 24 · 71%
Total strikes
18 of 25 · 72%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:25
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:01
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 47%Body 6%Legs 47%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 6%Ground 12%
WMichal OleksiejczukFeb 2020SUB R13:01 ctrl2 str8 td
Significant strikes
2 of 8 · 25%
Total strikes
13 of 23 · 57%
Takedowns
8 of 10 · 80%
Control
3:01
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:29
Kimura From Side ControlTarget
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LMisha CirkunovSep 2019SUB R10:43 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 35 · 60%
Total strikes
28 of 45 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:43
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Submission, R1 3:38
Peruvian Necktie On GroundTarget
Head 90%Body 10%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 10%Clinch 19%Ground 71%
WSam AlveyFeb 2019KO R10:08 ctrl14 str0 td
Significant strikes
14 of 32 · 44%
Total strikes
17 of 36 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:49
Punches to Head On GroundTarget
Head 50%Body 14%Legs 36%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 0%Ground 36%
WPaul CraigDec 2018SUB R38:27 ctrl17 str1 td
Significant strikes
17 of 38 · 45%
Total strikes
49 of 75 · 65%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
8:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
4
Reversals
2
Ended
Submission, R3 4:51
Kimura From Half GuardTarget
Head 94%Body 0%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 12%Clinch 0%Ground 88%