Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss August 2020. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Dec 2022
Read the researchThe Record
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Joaquin Buckley
21-8-0
32y·5' 10"·76" reach·Southpaw
1:39
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.52
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
73%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 17 recorded bouts, 723 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 62%Body 28%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 6%Ground 19%
And how often each lands
Head28%
Body63%
Legs82%
Distance32%
Clinch61%
Ground63%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
11Wins8 KO · 3 DEC
6Losses3 KO · 3 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Holland
15%
Kasanganay
34%
Wright
0%
Chirico
10%
Arroyo
14%
Alhassan
4%
Duraev
3%
Imavov
0%
Curtis
4%
Fialho
16%
Morono
10%
Luque
37%
Ruziboev
34%
Thompson
9%
Covington
0%
Usman
0%
Brady
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.87100%17
R23.69129%16
R35.15179%10
R42.20—1
R54.00—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.62
Strikes absorbed / min3.1
Striking accuracyof everything thrown36%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed58%
Takedowns / 15 min1.43
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land45%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed70%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together6.72
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 17 bouts11.8m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
32.0%
Landed at range
1,701 thrown over 17 bouts
42.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−10.7pp
Gap
below expected
80.1%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LSean BradyMay 2026U-DEC0:00 ctrl5 str0 td
Significant strikes
5 of 31 · 16%
Total strikes
21 of 53 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 40%Body 40%Legs 20%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LKamaru UsmanJun 2025U-DEC0:00 ctrl44 str0 td
Significant strikes
44 of 148 · 30%
Total strikes
51 of 156 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 27%Legs 7%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 7%Ground 0%
WColby CovingtonDec 2024DOC R31:18 ctrl75 str0 td
Significant strikes
75 of 151 · 50%
Total strikes
81 of 160 · 51%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R3 4:42
Cut above eyeTarget
Head 79%Body 17%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 8%Ground 5%
WStephen ThompsonOct 2024KO R34:13 ctrl34 str4 td
Significant strikes
34 of 93 · 37%
Total strikes
55 of 117 · 47%
Takedowns
4 of 7 · 57%
Control
4:13
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:17
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 68%Body 26%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 15%Ground 3%
WNursulton RuziboevMay 2024U-DEC5:30 ctrl86 str4 td
Significant strikes
86 of 156 · 55%
Total strikes
113 of 187 · 60%
Takedowns
4 of 4 · 100%
Control
5:30
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 81%Body 16%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 0%Ground 83%
WVicente LuqueMar 2024KO R20:49 ctrl55 str0 td
Significant strikes
55 of 131 · 42%
Total strikes
63 of 142 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:49
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:17
Punches to Head From GuardTarget
Head 76%Body 11%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 0%Ground 62%
WAlex MoronoOct 2023U-DEC2:21 ctrl68 str2 td
Significant strikes
68 of 176 · 39%
Total strikes
77 of 186 · 41%
Takedowns
2 of 4 · 50%
Control
2:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 60%Body 35%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 81%Clinch 3%Ground 16%
WAndre FialhoMay 2023KO R20:23 ctrl26 str2 td
Significant strikes
26 of 89 · 29%
Total strikes
27 of 90 · 30%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:15
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 46%Body 35%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LChris CurtisDec 2022KO R20:00 ctrl50 str0 td
Significant strikes
50 of 163 · 31%
Total strikes
50 of 163 · 31%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:49
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 54%Body 30%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
LNassourdine ImavovSep 2022U-DEC0:29 ctrl46 str0 td
Significant strikes
46 of 174 · 26%
Total strikes
55 of 183 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 59%Body 17%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
WAlbert DuraevJun 2022DOC R20:22 ctrl27 str0 td
Significant strikes
27 of 105 · 26%
Total strikes
30 of 108 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:22
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Doctor's stoppage, R2 5:00
Target
Head 56%Body 41%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 11%Ground 4%
WAbdul Razak AlhassanFeb 2022S-DEC2:05 ctrl51 str5 td
Significant strikes
51 of 153 · 33%
Total strikes
57 of 159 · 36%
Takedowns
5 of 8 · 63%
Control
2:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 35%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 10%Ground 2%
WAntonio ArroyoSep 2021KO R31:18 ctrl41 str1 td
Significant strikes
41 of 102 · 40%
Total strikes
45 of 107 · 42%
Takedowns
1 of 6 · 17%
Control
1:18
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:26
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 29%Body 29%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 5%Ground 12%
LAlessio Di ChiricoJan 2021KO R10:00 ctrl3 str0 td
Significant strikes
3 of 22 · 14%
Total strikes
3 of 22 · 14%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:12
Kick to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 67%Body 33%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WJordan WrightNov 2020KO R21:49 ctrl43 str0 td
Significant strikes
43 of 80 · 54%
Total strikes
59 of 96 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
1:49
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:18
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 72%Body 28%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 7%Ground 16%
WImpa KasanganayOct 2020KO R21:03 ctrl29 str1 td
Significant strikes
29 of 94 · 31%
Total strikes
29 of 95 · 31%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
1:03
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:03
Spinning Back Kick HeadTarget
Head 66%Body 17%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 7%Ground 7%
LKevin HollandAug 2020KO R30:13 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 120 · 33%
Total strikes
41 of 121 · 34%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:32
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 15%Body 78%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 18%Ground 0%