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Joel Alvarez

El Fenomeno
23-4-0
33y·6' 3"·77" reach·Orthodox
1:27
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.50
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
88%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss February 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 12 recorded bouts, 458 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 66%Body 21%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 10%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head45%
Body77%
Legs90%
Distance49%
Clinch81%
Ground74%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

8Wins4 KO · 3 SUB · 1 DEC
3Losses1 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

0%
Ismagulov
4%
Belluardo
0%
Duffy
0%
Yakovlev
1%
Moises
0%
Tsarukyan
15%
Diakiese
6%
Brener
2%
Klose
43%
Luque
0%
Amosov
3%
Njokuani

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R14.51100%12
R24.90109%8
R34.3095%4

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.53
Strikes absorbed / min3.03
Striking accuracyof everything thrown54%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min0.18
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land33%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed46%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.1
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.56
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 12 bouts8.3m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

49.6%
Landed at range
577 thrown over 11 bouts
39.9%
Expected
against these opponents
+9.7pp
Gap
above expected
71.5%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LChidi NjokuaniAug 2026U-DEC0:26 ctrl74 str0 td
Significant strikes
74 of 164 · 45%
Total strikes
76 of 166 · 46%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 26%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LYaroslav AmosovMay 2026SUB R20:00 ctrl8 str0 td
Significant strikes
8 of 22 · 36%
Total strikes
9 of 23 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:13
Arm Triangle On Ground
Target
Head 88%Body 13%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WVicente LuqueOct 2025U-DEC6:30 ctrl89 str1 td
Significant strikes
89 of 148 · 60%
Total strikes
197 of 288 · 68%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
6:30
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 13%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 62%Clinch 0%Ground 38%
This fight on UFCStats
WDrakkar KloseDec 2024KO R10:04 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 24 · 83%
Total strikes
39 of 44 · 89%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:48
Knee to Head At Distance
Target
Head 75%Body 20%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 40%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WElves BrenerAug 2024KO R30:51 ctrl95 str0 td
Significant strikes
95 of 141 · 67%
Total strikes
114 of 164 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:51
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:36
Knees to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 71%Body 25%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 25%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarc DiakieseJul 2023SUB R21:26 ctrl42 str0 td
Significant strikes
42 of 75 · 56%
Total strikes
64 of 98 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:26
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 4:26
D'Arce Choke From Side Control
Target
Head 48%Body 29%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 5%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LArman TsarukyanFeb 2022KO R20:00 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 10 · 70%
Total strikes
27 of 33 · 82%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:57
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 0%Ground 43%
This fight on UFCStats
WThiago MoisesNov 2021KO R10:02 ctrl44 str0 td
Significant strikes
44 of 73 · 60%
Total strikes
44 of 73 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:01
Elbows to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 61%Body 27%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAlexander YakovlevOct 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Total strikes
10 of 13 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:00
Armbar From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 25%Body 0%Legs 75%
Position
Distance 75%Clinch 0%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WJoe DuffyJul 2020SUB R10:00 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 37 · 49%
Total strikes
18 of 37 · 49%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:25
Guillotine Choke From Guard
Target
Head 39%Body 17%Legs 44%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDanilo BelluardoJun 2019KO R20:17 ctrl19 str0 td
Significant strikes
19 of 41 · 46%
Total strikes
87 of 113 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:22
Punches to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 84%Body 5%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 26%Clinch 5%Ground 68%
This fight on UFCStats
LDamir IsmagulovFeb 2019U-DEC0:00 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 127 · 30%
Total strikes
38 of 127 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 68%Body 13%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.