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Julian Erosa

31-14-0
37y·6' 1"·74" reach·Southpaw
2:18
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.13
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
70%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss March 2016. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Mar 2026

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 18 recorded bouts, 855 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 66%Body 24%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 16%Ground 6%
And how often each lands
Head41%
Body71%
Legs84%
Distance43%
Clinch71%
Ground88%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

10Wins3 KO · 4 SUB · 3 DEC
9Losses7 KO · 2 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

31%
Wrzosek
19%
Ishihara
0%
Smith
2%
Dawson
5%
Arce
10%
Woodson
2%
Landwehr
0%
Choi
20%
Jourdain
12%
Peterson
29%
Dawodu
0%
Caceres
0%
Padilla
0%
Ramos
14%
Rodriguez
19%
Elkins
24%
Costa
1%
Douglas

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R15.55100%18
R26.97126%9
R36.00108%8

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min6.18
Strikes absorbed / min6.31
Striking accuracyof everything thrown48%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed48%
Takedowns / 15 min1.73
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land43%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed61%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.7
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together12.49
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 18 bouts7.8m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

43.0%
Landed at range
1,162 thrown over 16 bouts
38.7%
Expected
against these opponents
+4.3pp
Gap
above expected
71.3%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LLerryan DouglasMar 2026KO R10:03 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 46 · 37%
Total strikes
18 of 47 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:33
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 76%Body 12%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMelquizael CostaMay 2025U-DEC3:34 ctrl69 str3 td
Significant strikes
69 of 173 · 40%
Total strikes
85 of 202 · 42%
Takedowns
3 of 10 · 30%
Control
3:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 61%Body 26%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 19%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
WDarren ElkinsApr 2025KO R10:48 ctrl54 str0 td
Significant strikes
54 of 73 · 74%
Total strikes
69 of 92 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:15
Punches to Head On Ground
Target
Head 96%Body 0%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 41%Clinch 20%Ground 39%
This fight on UFCStats
WChristian RodriguezJul 2024SUB R10:41 ctrl35 str1 td
Significant strikes
35 of 88 · 40%
Total strikes
39 of 94 · 41%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:49
Guillotine Choke From Guard
Target
Head 77%Body 20%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRicardo RamosMar 2024SUB R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 11 · 36%
Total strikes
11 of 21 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 2:15
Guillotine Choke From Guard
Target
Head 50%Body 50%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LFernando PadillaApr 2023KO R10:00 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 24 · 63%
Total strikes
15 of 24 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:41
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 60%Body 7%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LAlex CaceresDec 2022KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Total strikes
10 of 22 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:04
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 20%Body 30%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WHakeem DawoduSep 2022U-DEC4:22 ctrl92 str2 td
Significant strikes
92 of 188 · 49%
Total strikes
152 of 257 · 59%
Takedowns
2 of 6 · 33%
Control
4:22
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 30%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 64%Clinch 26%Ground 10%
This fight on UFCStats
WSteven PetersonFeb 2022S-DEC1:52 ctrl155 str3 td
Significant strikes
155 of 291 · 53%
Total strikes
163 of 300 · 54%
Takedowns
3 of 5 · 60%
Control
1:52
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 77%Body 19%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 6%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WCharles JourdainSep 2021SUB R32:35 ctrl103 str2 td
Significant strikes
103 of 214 · 48%
Total strikes
106 of 217 · 49%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
2:35
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:56
D'Arce Choke On Ground
Target
Head 64%Body 28%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 78%Clinch 21%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LSeungWoo ChoiJun 2021KO R10:00 ctrl10 str0 td
Significant strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Total strikes
10 of 20 · 50%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:37
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 50%Body 20%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WNate LandwehrFeb 2021KO R10:01 ctrl15 str0 td
Significant strikes
15 of 23 · 65%
Total strikes
17 of 25 · 68%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:56
Flying Knee Head
Target
Head 73%Body 13%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 13%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
WSean WoodsonJun 2020SUB R31:13 ctrl103 str3 td
Significant strikes
103 of 206 · 50%
Total strikes
107 of 210 · 51%
Takedowns
3 of 6 · 50%
Control
1:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:44
D'Arce Choke On Ground
Target
Head 59%Body 21%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJulio ArceMay 2019KO R30:33 ctrl43 str0 td
Significant strikes
43 of 160 · 27%
Total strikes
46 of 164 · 28%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:33
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:49
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 53%Body 35%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LGrant DawsonMar 2019U-DEC0:17 ctrl49 str0 td
Significant strikes
49 of 85 · 58%
Total strikes
70 of 109 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 76%Body 18%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 61%Clinch 16%Ground 22%
This fight on UFCStats
LDevonte SmithNov 2018KO R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 7 · 57%
Total strikes
4 of 7 · 57%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:46
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 25%Body 25%Legs 50%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LTeruto IshiharaMar 2016KO R21:03 ctrl16 str1 td
Significant strikes
16 of 44 · 36%
Total strikes
24 of 52 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:03
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:34
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 25%Body 56%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarcin WrzosekDec 2015S-DEC4:39 ctrl61 str2 td
Significant strikes
61 of 108 · 56%
Total strikes
107 of 159 · 67%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
4:39
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 46%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 36%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.