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Julio Arce

19-6-0
36y·5' 7"·70" reach·Southpaw
1:01
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.31
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
71%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.6
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss November 2021. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 503 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 72%Body 23%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 7%Ground 1%
And how often each lands
Head30%
Body60%
Legs79%
Distance33%
Clinch62%
Ground70%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

7Wins4 KO · 1 SUB · 2 DEC
4Losses1 KO · 3 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

5%
Ige
10%
Teymur
28%
Moraes
2%
Erosa
6%
Dawodu
5%
Ewell
0%
Yadong
2%
Santos
1%
Jackson
2%
Burns

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.84100%10
R24.85171%10
R35.25185%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min4.36
Strikes absorbed / min3.05
Striking accuracyof everything thrown36%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed68%
Takedowns / 15 min0.46
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land28%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed96%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.3
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.41
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts12.2m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

33.5%
Landed at range
1,375 thrown over 10 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WHerbert BurnsMar 2024KO R20:08 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 79 · 37%
Total strikes
29 of 79 · 37%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 2:00
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 66%Body 31%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 69%Clinch 31%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMontel JacksonNov 2022U-DEC0:06 ctrl26 str1 td
Significant strikes
26 of 126 · 21%
Total strikes
44 of 156 · 28%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 31%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 4%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDaniel SantosApr 2022U-DEC0:18 ctrl127 str0 td
Significant strikes
127 of 265 · 48%
Total strikes
127 of 265 · 48%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:18
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 20%Legs 2%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LSong YadongNov 2021KO R20:00 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 78 · 17%
Total strikes
13 of 78 · 17%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:35
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 54%Body 31%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WAndre EwellJul 2021KO R20:24 ctrl42 str0 td
Significant strikes
42 of 113 · 37%
Total strikes
44 of 115 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 3:45
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 64%Body 14%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LHakeem DawoduNov 2019S-DEC0:56 ctrl32 str1 td
Significant strikes
32 of 124 · 26%
Total strikes
64 of 162 · 40%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:56
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 66%Body 34%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJulian ErosaMay 2019KO R30:13 ctrl74 str1 td
Significant strikes
74 of 160 · 46%
Total strikes
74 of 160 · 46%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 1:49
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 82%Body 16%Legs 1%
Position
Distance 96%Clinch 3%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
LSheymon MoraesNov 2018S-DEC4:10 ctrl25 str1 td
Significant strikes
25 of 119 · 21%
Total strikes
46 of 145 · 32%
Takedowns
1 of 5 · 20%
Control
4:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 36%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDaniel TeymurJun 2018SUB R31:20 ctrl63 str0 td
Significant strikes
63 of 178 · 35%
Total strikes
80 of 199 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:20
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 2:55
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 59%Body 33%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 13%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WDan IgeJan 2018U-DEC0:44 ctrl72 str0 td
Significant strikes
72 of 201 · 36%
Total strikes
87 of 216 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:44
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 15%Legs 1%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 11%Ground 4%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.