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Justin Gaethje

28-5-0
37y·5' 11"·70" reach·Orthodox
0:59
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.54
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
64%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.7
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2017. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Apr 2024

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 16 recorded bouts, 1271 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 66%Body 11%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 13%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head50%
Body76%
Legs88%
Distance55%
Clinch79%
Ground70%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

11Wins7 KO · 4 DEC
5Losses3 KO · 2 SUB

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

1%
Johnson
1%
Alvarez
7%
Poirier
5%
Vick
29%
Barboza
2%
Cerrone
0%
Ferguson
4%
Nurmagomedov
11%
Chandler
6%
Oliveira
1%
Fiziev
0%
Poirier
0%
Holloway
10%
Fiziev
24%
Pimblett
8%
Topuria

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R16.13100%16
R26.68109%12
R36.39104%9
R45.8395%5
R55.9697%3

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min6.29
Strikes absorbed / min6.83
Striking accuracyof everything thrown57%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min0.3
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land26%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed73%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together13.12
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 16 bouts12.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

54.9%
Landed at range
1,939 thrown over 16 bouts
41.5%
Expected
against these opponents
+13.4pp
Gap
above expected
88.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

WIlia TopuriaJun 2026KO R41:32 ctrl91 str0 td
Significant strikes
91 of 192 · 47%
Total strikes
119 of 228 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
1:32
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 5:00
to Corner Stoppage
Target
Head 87%Body 9%Legs 4%
Position
Distance 80%Clinch 16%Ground 3%
This fight on UFCStats
WPaddy PimblettJan 2026U-DEC5:55 ctrl144 str3 td
Significant strikes
144 of 254 · 57%
Total strikes
200 of 313 · 64%
Takedowns
3 of 3 · 100%
Control
5:55
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 83%Body 10%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 14%Ground 15%
This fight on UFCStats
WRafael FizievMar 2025U-DEC1:32 ctrl72 str0 td
Significant strikes
72 of 134 · 54%
Total strikes
98 of 163 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
1:32
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 78%Body 13%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 57%Clinch 36%Ground 7%
This fight on UFCStats
LMax HollowayApr 2024KO R50:00 ctrl103 str0 td
Significant strikes
103 of 199 · 52%
Total strikes
103 of 199 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 4:59
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 43%Body 25%Legs 32%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDustin PoirierJul 2023KO R20:01 ctrl41 str0 td
Significant strikes
41 of 66 · 62%
Total strikes
41 of 66 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:00
Kick to Head At Distance
Target
Head 56%Body 17%Legs 27%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 5%Ground 2%
This fight on UFCStats
WRafael FizievMar 2023M-DEC0:05 ctrl103 str1 td
Significant strikes
103 of 171 · 60%
Total strikes
106 of 174 · 61%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:05
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 79%Body 14%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 82%Clinch 18%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LCharles OliveiraMay 2022SUB R10:13 ctrl21 str0 td
Significant strikes
21 of 33 · 64%
Total strikes
21 of 33 · 64%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:13
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:22
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 62%Body 14%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 29%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMichael ChandlerNov 2021U-DEC1:37 ctrl116 str0 td
Significant strikes
116 of 183 · 63%
Total strikes
133 of 205 · 65%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:37
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 6%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 4%Ground 8%
This fight on UFCStats
LKhabib NurmagomedovOct 2020SUB R20:14 ctrl29 str0 td
Significant strikes
29 of 45 · 64%
Total strikes
29 of 46 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 1:34
Triangle Choke From Bottom Guard
Target
Head 41%Body 7%Legs 52%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WTony FergusonMay 2020KO R50:00 ctrl143 str0 td
Significant strikes
143 of 197 · 73%
Total strikes
143 of 197 · 73%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R5 3:39
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 70%Body 9%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WDonald CerroneSep 2019KO R10:04 ctrl40 str0 td
Significant strikes
40 of 61 · 66%
Total strikes
40 of 61 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:18
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 68%Body 0%Legs 33%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 5%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WEdson BarbozaMar 2019KO R10:44 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 35 · 57%
Total strikes
22 of 37 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:44
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 2:30
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 65%Body 10%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 60%Clinch 40%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WJames VickAug 2018KO R10:04 ctrl7 str0 td
Significant strikes
7 of 15 · 47%
Total strikes
7 of 15 · 47%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:04
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:27
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 43%Body 29%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 0%Ground 14%
This fight on UFCStats
LDustin PoirierApr 2018KO R41:04 ctrl115 str0 td
Significant strikes
115 of 212 · 54%
Total strikes
116 of 213 · 54%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
1:04
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R4 0:33
Punch to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 49%Body 8%Legs 43%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LEddie AlvarezDec 2017KO R30:06 ctrl122 str0 td
Significant strikes
122 of 237 · 51%
Total strikes
124 of 240 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 3:59
Knee to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 57%Body 13%Legs 30%
Position
Distance 87%Clinch 12%Ground 1%
This fight on UFCStats
WMichael JohnsonJul 2017KO R20:06 ctrl104 str0 td
Significant strikes
104 of 174 · 60%
Total strikes
104 of 174 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:48
Knees to Head In Clinch
Target
Head 60%Body 6%Legs 35%
Position
Distance 74%Clinch 26%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.