Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss July 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Read the researchThe Record
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Kai Kara-France
25-12-0 (1 NC)
33y·5' 4"·69" reach·Orthodox
1:18
Control / 15m
time on top
+1.22
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
38%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in December 2019, 100 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Jul 2022
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 13 recorded bouts, 712 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 64%Body 15%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 86%Clinch 2%Ground 12%
And how often each lands
Head32%
Body61%
Legs81%
Distance38%
Clinch64%
Ground59%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
8Wins3 KO · 5 DEC
5Losses1 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
64%
Garcia
2%
Paiva
2%
Rosa
0%
Moreno
2%
Nam
26%
Royval
0%
Bontorin
3%
Garbrandt
0%
Askarov
3%
Moreno
4%
Albazi
3%
Erceg
1%
Pantoja
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.32100%13
R24.89147%10
R35.30160%9
R45.40—1
R56.80—1
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min4.46
Strikes absorbed / min3.24
Striking accuracyof everything thrown40%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed64%
Takedowns / 15 min0.56
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land30%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed83%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together7.7
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 13 bouts12.3m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
38.2%
Landed at range
1,602 thrown over 13 bouts
37.8%
Expected
against these opponents
+0.4pp
Gap
above expected
72.2%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LAlexandre PantojaJun 2025SUB R30:10 ctrl38 str0 td
Significant strikes
38 of 67 · 57%
Total strikes
57 of 86 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:10
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 1:55
Rear Naked ChokeTarget
Head 68%Body 21%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 3%Ground 5%
WSteve ErcegAug 2024KO R10:08 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 51 · 35%
Total strikes
18 of 51 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:04
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 61%Body 28%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 0%Ground 17%
LAmir AlbaziJun 2023S-DEC0:58 ctrl99 str2 td
Significant strikes
99 of 283 · 35%
Total strikes
133 of 323 · 41%
Takedowns
2 of 2 · 100%
Control
0:58
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 5 rounds
Target
Head 58%Body 20%Legs 22%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 1%Ground 8%
LBrandon MorenoJul 2022KO R30:24 ctrl53 str1 td
Significant strikes
53 of 110 · 48%
Total strikes
66 of 123 · 54%
Takedowns
1 of 2 · 50%
Control
0:24
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 4:34
Kick to Body At DistanceTarget
Head 45%Body 6%Legs 49%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 0%Ground 9%
WAskar AskarovMar 2022U-DEC0:00 ctrl51 str0 td
Significant strikes
51 of 130 · 39%
Total strikes
64 of 145 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 51%Body 20%Legs 29%
Position
Distance 90%Clinch 6%Ground 4%
WCody GarbrandtDec 2021KO R10:06 ctrl23 str0 td
Significant strikes
23 of 41 · 56%
Total strikes
23 of 41 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:06
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:21
Punches to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 78%Body 4%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 83%Clinch 0%Ground 17%
WRogerio BontorinMar 2021KO R10:01 ctrl13 str0 td
Significant strikes
13 of 22 · 59%
Total strikes
21 of 32 · 66%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:01
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:55
Punch to Head In ClinchTarget
Head 62%Body 15%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
LBrandon RoyvalSep 2020SUB R21:31 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 38 · 58%
Total strikes
22 of 39 · 56%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
1:31
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R2 0:48
Guillotine Choke After Drop to GuardTarget
Head 55%Body 5%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
WTyson NamFeb 2020U-DEC0:17 ctrl78 str0 td
Significant strikes
78 of 257 · 30%
Total strikes
78 of 257 · 30%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
0:17
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 12%Legs 23%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 6%Ground 1%
LBrandon MorenoDec 2019U-DEC0:00 ctrl82 str0 td
Significant strikes
82 of 231 · 35%
Total strikes
82 of 231 · 35%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 12%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
WMark De La RosaAug 2019U-DEC0:19 ctrl91 str1 td
Significant strikes
91 of 193 · 47%
Total strikes
93 of 195 · 48%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
0:19
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 64%Body 10%Legs 26%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 2%Ground 4%
WRaulian PaivaFeb 2019S-DEC0:21 ctrl58 str2 td
Significant strikes
58 of 168 · 35%
Total strikes
60 of 170 · 35%
Takedowns
2 of 7 · 29%
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 57%Body 29%Legs 14%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 2%Ground 3%
WElias GarciaDec 2018U-DEC9:32 ctrl86 str0 td
Significant strikes
86 of 178 · 48%
Total strikes
157 of 261 · 60%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
9:32
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 86%Body 10%Legs 3%
Position
Distance 38%Clinch 0%Ground 62%