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Karl Roberson

9-6-0
35y·6' 1"·74" reach·Southpaw
2:37
Control / 15m
time on top
+0.15
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
60%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.5
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss March 2022. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Jul 2022

Read the research

The Odometer

Backwards

Crossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in April 2021, 109 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.

Fired again Jul 2022

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 10 recorded bouts, 208 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 61%Body 18%Legs 21%
Position
Distance 59%Clinch 16%Ground 25%
And how often each lands
Head42%
Body69%
Legs86%
Distance40%
Clinch94%
Ground80%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

5Wins1 KO · 2 SUB · 2 DEC
6Losses2 KO · 4 SUB

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

33%
Stewart
0%
Ferreira
34%
Marshman
20%
Teixeira
39%
Turman
7%
Kopylov
7%
Vettori
0%
Allen
0%
Jr.
3%
Nzechukwu

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.61100%10
R22.4092%5
R32.3992%4

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min2.57
Strikes absorbed / min2.42
Striking accuracyof everything thrown51%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed57%
Takedowns / 15 min0.72
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land40%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed40%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together4.99
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 10 bouts8.3m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

40.3%
Landed at range
303 thrown over 10 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LKennedy NzechukwuJul 2022KO R30:23 ctrl9 str0 td
Significant strikes
9 of 19 · 47%
Total strikes
16 of 26 · 62%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:23
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 2:19
Elbows to Head From Back Control
Target
Head 44%Body 44%Legs 11%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LKhalil Rountree Jr.Mar 2022KO R20:00 ctrl17 str0 td
Significant strikes
17 of 28 · 61%
Total strikes
17 of 28 · 61%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 0:25
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 24%Body 35%Legs 41%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBrendan AllenApr 2021SUB R10:00 ctrl6 str0 td
Significant strikes
6 of 14 · 43%
Total strikes
15 of 24 · 63%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:55
Ankle Lock On Ground
Target
Head 83%Body 0%Legs 17%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMarvin VettoriJun 2020SUB R10:19 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 16 · 25%
Total strikes
4 of 16 · 25%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:19
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:17
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 100%Body 0%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WRoman KopylovNov 2019SUB R30:55 ctrl43 str1 td
Significant strikes
43 of 117 · 37%
Total strikes
43 of 117 · 37%
Takedowns
1 of 3 · 33%
Control
0:55
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
1
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 4:01
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 33%Body 7%Legs 60%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WWellington TurmanJul 2019S-DEC5:48 ctrl50 str0 td
Significant strikes
50 of 80 · 63%
Total strikes
79 of 113 · 70%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
5:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
3
Ended
Split decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 70%Body 22%Legs 8%
Position
Distance 30%Clinch 16%Ground 54%
This fight on UFCStats
LGlover TeixeiraJan 2019SUB R10:41 ctrl24 str0 td
Significant strikes
24 of 30 · 80%
Total strikes
29 of 35 · 83%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:41
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:21
Arm Triangle From Side Control
Target
Head 92%Body 8%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 4%Clinch 25%Ground 71%
This fight on UFCStats
WJack MarshmanNov 2018U-DEC5:06 ctrl34 str2 td
Significant strikes
34 of 71 · 48%
Total strikes
90 of 135 · 67%
Takedowns
2 of 3 · 67%
Control
5:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 71%Body 18%Legs 12%
Position
Distance 71%Clinch 15%Ground 15%
This fight on UFCStats
LCezar FerreiraMay 2018SUB R10:00 ctrl4 str0 td
Significant strikes
4 of 6 · 67%
Total strikes
20 of 26 · 77%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:45
Arm Triangle From Side Control Technical Submission
Target
Head 75%Body 0%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 25%Clinch 50%Ground 25%
This fight on UFCStats
WDarren StewartNov 2017SUB R11:14 ctrl17 str1 td
Significant strikes
17 of 23 · 74%
Total strikes
21 of 29 · 72%
Takedowns
1 of 1 · 100%
Control
1:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
2
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 3:41
Rear Naked Choke
Target
Head 71%Body 29%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 29%Clinch 53%Ground 18%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.