Chin Decay
PredictiveFirst KO loss May 2024. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.
Fired again Feb 2026
Read the researchThe Record
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Kevin Borjas
“El Gallo Negro”
11-5-0
28y·5' 5"·68" reach·Orthodox
0:45
Control / 15m
time on top
-1.40
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
0%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
1.1
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed
Tells
Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.
The Odometer
BackwardsCrossed into the heaviest third of head strikes eaten for their age in May 2024, 92 head strikes before that night. Never-yet-stopped fighters carrying that kind of mileage took a first KO in 11.0% of fights; the lightest third ran 15.6%.
Fired again Feb 2026
Read the researchChecked 3 tells for this fighter. 2 fired.
How they fight
Every significant strike they have landed across 7 recorded bouts, 265 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.
Target
Head 73%Body 17%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 93%Clinch 6%Ground 1%
And how often each lands
Head37%
Body68%
Legs75%
Distance41%
Clinch75%
Ground75%
How fights end
UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.
3Wins3 DEC
4Losses2 KO · 2 DEC
Control, bout by bout
Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.
2%
Van
0%
Costa
0%
Rodriguez
23%
Sumudaerji
0%
Rodriguez
1%
Lima
0%
Tsuruya
As the fight goes on
Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.
Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R12.57100%7
R23.47135%6
R34.35169%4
Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.
Career numbers
Strikes landed / min3.87
Strikes absorbed / min5.27
Striking accuracyof everything thrown42%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed50%
Takedowns / 15 min0
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land0%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed72%
Sub attempts / 15 min0
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together9.14
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 7 bouts11.4m
Earned Accuracy
How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.
41.0%
Landed at range
602 thrown over 6 bouts
42.6%
Expected
against these opponents
−1.6pp
Gap
below expected
70.9%
Coverage
from real records
The fine print
Distance strikes only
Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.
One pass, not a rating
How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.
Coverage, and who gets ranked
Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.
Short records get pulled to the middle
An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.
Bout log
LRei TsuruyaAug 2026SUB R10:00 ctrl0 str0 td
Significant strikes
0 of 0
Total strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R1 4:14
Rear Naked ChokeWAndre LimaJun 2026U-DEC0:08 ctrl51 str0 td
Significant strikes
51 of 136 · 38%
Total strikes
52 of 137 · 38%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
0:08
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 63%Body 31%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 6%Ground 0%
LImanol RodriguezFeb 2026KO R20:00 ctrl22 str0 td
Significant strikes
22 of 52 · 42%
Total strikes
24 of 54 · 44%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
2
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 4:21
Punch to Head At DistanceTarget
Head 77%Body 14%Legs 9%
Position
Distance 91%Clinch 9%Ground 0%
LSumudaerjiAug 2025U-DEC3:29 ctrl16 str0 td
Significant strikes
16 of 44 · 36%
Total strikes
23 of 51 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 5 · 0%
Control
3:29
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 44%Body 31%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 63%Clinch 38%Ground 0%
WRonaldo RodriguezMar 2025U-DEC0:02 ctrl83 str0 td
Significant strikes
83 of 141 · 59%
Total strikes
84 of 142 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:02
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 87%Body 7%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 94%Clinch 4%Ground 2%
LAlessandro CostaMay 2024KO R20:00 ctrl18 str0 td
Significant strikes
18 of 56 · 32%
Total strikes
18 of 56 · 32%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:35
Punches to Head From MountTarget
Head 67%Body 28%Legs 6%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
LJoshua VanNov 2023U-DEC0:21 ctrl75 str0 td
Significant strikes
75 of 197 · 38%
Total strikes
78 of 200 · 39%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
1
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 72%Body 12%Legs 16%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 1%Ground 1%