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Kyle Nelson

17-7-1
35y·5' 11"·71" reach·Switch
3:04
Control / 15m
time on top
-0.98
Striking diff.
landed minus absorbed
40%
Finish rate
wins inside the distance
0.2
Power
knockdowns per 100 landed

Tells

Non-traditional predictors we've tested against the record. Only the ones that fire on this fighter show up here.

Chin Decay

Predictive

First KO loss December 2018. Fighters at the same age and mileage lose by KO in 11.3% of fights; after a first KO it runs 17.3%.

Fired again Mar 2026

Read the research

Checked 3 tells for this fighter. 1 fired.

How they fight

Every significant strike they have landed across 12 recorded bouts, 413 in total. Target and position are two readings of the same strikes, so each adds to 100.

Target
Head 56%Body 26%Legs 18%
Position
Distance 84%Clinch 13%Ground 3%
And how often each lands
Head35%
Body72%
Legs87%
Distance43%
Clinch63%
Ground65%

How fights end

UFC bouts only, so these will not add up to the record above. Counts rather than rates: two knockouts in three wins is not a 67% finisher.

5Wins2 KO · 3 DEC
6Losses4 KO · 1 SUB · 1 DEC

Control, bout by bout

Seconds spent controlling the opponent in each fight, oldest on the left. UFCStats records this per bout and never adds it up; this is what that looks like added up.

4%
Ferreira
29%
Sayles
52%
Reyes
14%
Quarantillo
21%
Herbert
37%
Choi
16%
Bilder
0%
Padilla
20%
Algeo
56%
Garcia
21%
Frevola
0%
McKinney

As the fight goes on

Which measure to show

Significant strikes landed, per minute fought. Every round is measured against round one, except rounds reached by fewer than 3 bouts, which are dimmed and left uncompared.

Landed / minvs R1Bouts
R13.84100%12
R23.98104%8
R32.6870%7

Only fights that reached a round count towards it, so later rounds are a smaller sample.

Career numbers

Strikes landed / min3.6
Strikes absorbed / min4.58
Striking accuracyof everything thrown45%
Striking defenceof what comes back, missed53%
Takedowns / 15 min1.18
Takedown accuracyof attempts that land23%
Takedown defenceof attempts stuffed66%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.5
Pacestrikes landed and absorbed, added together8.18
Average bout lengthhow long their fights actually last, across 12 bouts9.6m

Earned Accuracy

How hard the opponents on this record were to hit at distance, and whether they beat it. Distance strikes only, so nobody gets credit for accuracy they picked up hammering someone already flat on the floor.

43.5%
Landed at range
796 thrown over 12 bouts
Expected
against these opponents
Gap
below the cutoffs
Coverage
from real records

Too much of this record was set against opponents who had no distance history of their own yet. The expected number would mostly be the division average wearing a disguise, so it's held back.

The fine print

Distance strikes only

Nothing thrown in the clinch or on the ground counts. Those land at about 72% and 71%, against 44% at distance, so a blended accuracy mostly measures where a fight happened. Rank the sport that way and its best strikers are all wrestlers.

One pass, not a rating

How much each opponent lets through is taken raw. It isn't adjusted for who they fought, so a fighter whose opponents all had soft schedules comes out looking better here than they are. Running it to convergence is a later job.

Coverage, and who gets ranked

Coverage is how much of the expected number came from the opponents' own records instead of the division average. Under 65% it's mostly the division talking, so the comparison gets hidden. Same for anyone under 5 qualifying bouts, or under 300 distance strikes of their own, which is where an accuracy still moves on a single exchange. Miss any of the three and you'll see what they landed, nothing else, and they stay out of any ranking.

Short records get pulled to the middle

An opponent who hasn't been shot at much gets dragged toward their division's average, and the drag fades as their record fills in. At 60 distance strikes faced, their own record and the division average count for the same.

Bout log

LTerrance McKinneyMar 2026KO R10:00 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Total strikes
1 of 3 · 33%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 0:24
Punches to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WMatt FrevolaOct 2025U-DEC3:11 ctrl63 str2 td
Significant strikes
63 of 135 · 47%
Total strikes
92 of 170 · 54%
Takedowns
2 of 5 · 40%
Control
3:11
Knockdowns
1
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 65%Body 22%Legs 13%
Position
Distance 73%Clinch 11%Ground 16%
This fight on UFCStats
LSteve GarciaSep 2024KO R12:13 ctrl1 str0 td
Significant strikes
1 of 2 · 50%
Total strikes
31 of 36 · 86%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
2:13
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 3:59
Elbows to Head From Half Guard
Target
Head 0%Body 0%Legs 100%
Position
Distance 100%Clinch 0%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WBill AlgeoMar 2024KO R10:48 ctrl32 str0 td
Significant strikes
32 of 59 · 54%
Total strikes
40 of 68 · 59%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:48
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 4:00
Punches to Head At Distance
Target
Head 63%Body 19%Legs 19%
Position
Distance 88%Clinch 13%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WFernando PadillaSep 2023U-DEC0:00 ctrl82 str0 td
Significant strikes
82 of 184 · 45%
Total strikes
83 of 185 · 45%
Takedowns
0 of 3 · 0%
Control
0:00
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 52%Body 23%Legs 24%
Position
Distance 98%Clinch 2%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
WBlake BilderJun 2023U-DEC2:21 ctrl59 str0 td
Significant strikes
59 of 126 · 47%
Total strikes
83 of 150 · 55%
Takedowns
0 of 1 · 0%
Control
2:21
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 41%Body 34%Legs 25%
Position
Distance 97%Clinch 3%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
DDooho ChoiFeb 2023M-DEC5:34 ctrl20 str5 td
Significant strikes
20 of 58 · 34%
Total strikes
39 of 80 · 49%
Takedowns
5 of 10 · 50%
Control
5:34
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Majority decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 50%Body 35%Legs 15%
Position
Distance 85%Clinch 15%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LJai HerbertJul 2022U-DEC3:06 ctrl41 str0 td
Significant strikes
41 of 62 · 66%
Total strikes
55 of 77 · 71%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
3:06
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
Unanimous decision, 3 rounds
Target
Head 37%Body 27%Legs 37%
Position
Distance 68%Clinch 32%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LBilly QuarantilloSep 2020KO R31:27 ctrl56 str0 td
Significant strikes
56 of 114 · 49%
Total strikes
62 of 120 · 52%
Takedowns
0 of 4 · 0%
Control
1:27
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R3 0:07
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 71%Body 23%Legs 5%
Position
Distance 77%Clinch 18%Ground 5%
This fight on UFCStats
WMarco Polo ReyesSep 2019KO R10:50 ctrl12 str0 td
Significant strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Total strikes
12 of 16 · 75%
Takedowns
0 of 2 · 0%
Control
0:50
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R1 1:36
Punch to Head At Distance
Target
Head 67%Body 33%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 17%Clinch 83%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LMatt SaylesMay 2019SUB R33:47 ctrl26 str2 td
Significant strikes
26 of 93 · 28%
Total strikes
32 of 103 · 31%
Takedowns
2 of 10 · 20%
Control
3:47
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
4
Reversals
0
Ended
Submission, R3 3:16
Arm Triangle From Mount
Target
Head 69%Body 31%Legs 0%
Position
Distance 92%Clinch 8%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats
LDiego FerreiraDec 2018KO R20:14 ctrl20 str0 td
Significant strikes
20 of 50 · 40%
Total strikes
20 of 50 · 40%
Takedowns
0 of 0
Control
0:14
Knockdowns
0
Sub attempts
0
Reversals
0
Ended
KO / TKO, R2 1:23
Punches to Head From Mount
Target
Head 60%Body 30%Legs 10%
Position
Distance 95%Clinch 5%Ground 0%
This fight on UFCStats

Numbers from UFCStats. Control time and strike placement are summed from each bout, everything else is as published.